#美联储加息是否已成定局
Tonight's FOMC—I actually don't plan to guess the outcome.
The market has already priced in a nearly 95% probability of a 25bp rate hike.
When the 10-year U.S. Treasury breaks above 5%, oil is around $108, and BTC has returned to around 77,000.
What many people want to know most is:
Will it go up or down tonight?
But lately I feel like this might be the wrong question.
Because what truly affects my next position isn't:
What the Fed says.
It's how the market reacts after hearing it.
If the hike is delivered, and
BTC fails to make new lows, Treasury yields start to fall, and ETF flows stabilize again,
then I will increase my market odds.
If the outcome is already expected by 95%, and
BTC continues to break down and Treasury yields keep rising,
then I will keep reducing risk exposure.
So tonight I’d rather move a bit slower.
First see the result, then see the market reaction, and only then make a decision.
Many people worry that:
By the time everything is confirmed, the price has already risen.
But what investing truly aims to secure isn’t necessarily the lowest price.
It’s:
Getting better odds when the information is more complete.
76,000 with logic deteriorating
isn't necessarily cheaper than 80,000 with the logic re-confirmed.
So tonight my plan is very simple:
No prediction.
Wait for validation.
You can buy a little more expensively—just don’t buy the wrong logic.
$BTC #crypto #DeFi
Tonight's FOMC—I actually don't plan to guess the outcome.
The market has already priced in a nearly 95% probability of a 25bp rate hike.
When the 10-year U.S. Treasury breaks above 5%, oil is around $108, and BTC has returned to around 77,000.
What many people want to know most is:
Will it go up or down tonight?
But lately I feel like this might be the wrong question.
Because what truly affects my next position isn't:
What the Fed says.
It's how the market reacts after hearing it.
If the hike is delivered, and
BTC fails to make new lows, Treasury yields start to fall, and ETF flows stabilize again,
then I will increase my market odds.
If the outcome is already expected by 95%, and
BTC continues to break down and Treasury yields keep rising,
then I will keep reducing risk exposure.
So tonight I’d rather move a bit slower.
First see the result, then see the market reaction, and only then make a decision.
Many people worry that:
By the time everything is confirmed, the price has already risen.
But what investing truly aims to secure isn’t necessarily the lowest price.
It’s:
Getting better odds when the information is more complete.
76,000 with logic deteriorating
isn't necessarily cheaper than 80,000 with the logic re-confirmed.
So tonight my plan is very simple:
No prediction.
Wait for validation.
You can buy a little more expensively—just don’t buy the wrong logic.
$BTC #crypto #DeFi
