๐๐
๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ โ O โฟITCOIN IS FACING A DECISIVE TESTโ
The market is basically prepared for a 25-basis-point rate hike going into Septemberโs FOMC.
US CPI rose 0.4% in August, while the core increased 0.3% during the month. Annual inflation came in at 3.4%. After the data, futures began pricing in a higher-than-90% probability of a 25 bp increase, and 85% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to raise the interest-rate range to 3.75%โ4.00%.
๐ My Take ยป This weekโs increase seems very likely. The main question is what Jerome Powellโ or, in this cycle, the Fedโs communicationsโwill signal for the coming months. The market is already starting to debate whether this will be only an adjustment or the start of a sequence of rate hikes. Reuters reports that some economists are already expecting at least one more increase.
If the Fed confirms a tougher stance, my near-term expectation is pressure on Bitcoin and tech stocks, especially if Treasury yields keep rising. The Nasdaq is already feeling that pressure, while Bitcoin trades near $76,000 after a session marked by strong risk aversion.
๐ฅ Gold is the asset I would watch differently: higher rates are usually a headwind, but inflation, oil above $100, and geopolitical risk continue to support defensive demand. This Tuesday, gold was still trading near $4,306.
๐ My Plan ยป I wonโt try to guess the first move after the announcement. I want to wait for the reaction of the $BTC , the Nasdaq, and Treasuriesโand trade only after the market shows whether the rate hike was already fully priced in.
๐ก๐จ๐ปโ๐๐โ๐๐๐๐๏ธ I keep studying Bitcoin and accumulating more $BTC based on my studies.
โฅฑFor me, the real trigger wonโt be just +25 bp.
It will be the answer to this question:
Is the Fed making just one increaseโฆ or has it started a new tightening cycle?
#FedRateWatch
The market is basically prepared for a 25-basis-point rate hike going into Septemberโs FOMC.
US CPI rose 0.4% in August, while the core increased 0.3% during the month. Annual inflation came in at 3.4%. After the data, futures began pricing in a higher-than-90% probability of a 25 bp increase, and 85% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to raise the interest-rate range to 3.75%โ4.00%.
๐ My Take ยป This weekโs increase seems very likely. The main question is what Jerome Powellโ or, in this cycle, the Fedโs communicationsโwill signal for the coming months. The market is already starting to debate whether this will be only an adjustment or the start of a sequence of rate hikes. Reuters reports that some economists are already expecting at least one more increase.
If the Fed confirms a tougher stance, my near-term expectation is pressure on Bitcoin and tech stocks, especially if Treasury yields keep rising. The Nasdaq is already feeling that pressure, while Bitcoin trades near $76,000 after a session marked by strong risk aversion.
๐ฅ Gold is the asset I would watch differently: higher rates are usually a headwind, but inflation, oil above $100, and geopolitical risk continue to support defensive demand. This Tuesday, gold was still trading near $4,306.
๐ My Plan ยป I wonโt try to guess the first move after the announcement. I want to wait for the reaction of the $BTC , the Nasdaq, and Treasuriesโand trade only after the market shows whether the rate hike was already fully priced in.
๐ก๐จ๐ปโ๐๐โ๐๐๐๐๏ธ I keep studying Bitcoin and accumulating more $BTC based on my studies.
โฅฑFor me, the real trigger wonโt be just +25 bp.
It will be the answer to this question:
Is the Fed making just one increaseโฆ or has it started a new tightening cycle?
#FedRateWatch
