Contract Order Book Daily Report｜9/16 Yesterday’s short-ETH signals came true, and the whole market followed with further declines
At this point yesterday, the funding rate just turned negative, and big players were adding shorts on Ethereum. They said this signal should be watched for another day.
Today we verified it: the $ETH funding rate is still negative, at -0.15%.
In the past 24 hours, the price dropped 5.35% to 2396.99, and the shorts really did take a solid bite of profit this round.
$BTC didn’t follow this script.
Down 3.63% in the past 24 hours to 75680.5, yet the funding rate flipped positive to 0.49%. The longs are still paying, propping things up at a cost.
When price falls but the funding rate rises, it suggests the main force behind this sell-off isn’t the original long positions cutting and dumping. It looks more like shorts are pushing the price down while longs are hard-fighting to hold. Neither side has conceded, and the money is still trapped in the market—no one has fully left.
Open interest stands at $8.142 billion, down only 0.2% over 24 hours. Positions haven’t been largely broken up by forced liquidations.
Longs still make up 64%, but passive sell orders dominate. The positioning structure doesn’t match the direction of actual executed trades. This kind of divergence usually indicates energy being accumulated—not the end of the move.
With the market down this much, the Fear & Greed Index is still stuck at 69—greed hasn’t moved.
Sentiment hasn’t caved in along with the price, which means leverage hasn’t truly exited. There are still people betting on a rebound inside the venue. If the rebound fails, the room for further “follow-through” declines will open.
The broader environment also didn’t provide relief.
That procedural vote in the Senate on crypto market structure legislation failed to pass. The 60-vote threshold wasn’t met, getting stuck on an ethical dispute tied to Trump himself and crypto wealth. Once the news broke, related concept stocks weakened on the spot.
What’s even more painful is that Wall Street has been positioning over the past couple of days for the next move from the Fed: rate hikes, not cuts. The probability implied by market forecasts is approaching 90%. Combined with the 10-year US Treasury yield climbing to 5.04%—a high since 2007—the signals of tightening liquidity are getting clearer by the day.
In smaller-cap coin futures, ASTR, CVC, and SHAZ funding rates are negative and below -1%, meaning shorts are packed to the extreme. A reversal in the wind direction could trigger a short-squeeze行情；
LYTE, SIREN, and ON funding rates have turned positive, and longs are quietly stacking positions too—neither side is in a safe zone.
Next, just watch one thing: whether this bearish ETH signal will transmit to Bitcoin. Once the funding rate synchronizes and turns negative, that would mark the start of a full-market coordinated downside move.
#合约资金费率 #Order Book Volatility
Live record: At present, this account holds $FOGO long contracts. As long as the logic hasn’t changed, the position will be kept.
This content was assisted and generated with Claude Fable 5 for reference only. Please verify independently.
At this point yesterday, the funding rate just turned negative, and big players were adding shorts on Ethereum. They said this signal should be watched for another day.
Today we verified it: the $ETH funding rate is still negative, at -0.15%.
In the past 24 hours, the price dropped 5.35% to 2396.99, and the shorts really did take a solid bite of profit this round.
$BTC didn’t follow this script.
Down 3.63% in the past 24 hours to 75680.5, yet the funding rate flipped positive to 0.49%. The longs are still paying, propping things up at a cost.
When price falls but the funding rate rises, it suggests the main force behind this sell-off isn’t the original long positions cutting and dumping. It looks more like shorts are pushing the price down while longs are hard-fighting to hold. Neither side has conceded, and the money is still trapped in the market—no one has fully left.
Open interest stands at $8.142 billion, down only 0.2% over 24 hours. Positions haven’t been largely broken up by forced liquidations.
Longs still make up 64%, but passive sell orders dominate. The positioning structure doesn’t match the direction of actual executed trades. This kind of divergence usually indicates energy being accumulated—not the end of the move.
With the market down this much, the Fear & Greed Index is still stuck at 69—greed hasn’t moved.
Sentiment hasn’t caved in along with the price, which means leverage hasn’t truly exited. There are still people betting on a rebound inside the venue. If the rebound fails, the room for further “follow-through” declines will open.
The broader environment also didn’t provide relief.
That procedural vote in the Senate on crypto market structure legislation failed to pass. The 60-vote threshold wasn’t met, getting stuck on an ethical dispute tied to Trump himself and crypto wealth. Once the news broke, related concept stocks weakened on the spot.
What’s even more painful is that Wall Street has been positioning over the past couple of days for the next move from the Fed: rate hikes, not cuts. The probability implied by market forecasts is approaching 90%. Combined with the 10-year US Treasury yield climbing to 5.04%—a high since 2007—the signals of tightening liquidity are getting clearer by the day.
In smaller-cap coin futures, ASTR, CVC, and SHAZ funding rates are negative and below -1%, meaning shorts are packed to the extreme. A reversal in the wind direction could trigger a short-squeeze行情；
LYTE, SIREN, and ON funding rates have turned positive, and longs are quietly stacking positions too—neither side is in a safe zone.
Next, just watch one thing: whether this bearish ETH signal will transmit to Bitcoin. Once the funding rate synchronizes and turns negative, that would mark the start of a full-market coordinated downside move.
#合约资金费率 #Order Book Volatility
Live record: At present, this account holds $FOGO long contracts. As long as the logic hasn’t changed, the position will be kept.
This content was assisted and generated with Claude Fable 5 for reference only. Please verify independently.
