#FedRateWatch FedRateWatch | The increase is already priced in. The real trade starts after.
The market is practically set up for a 25 bp hike after the August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. The odds of a hike are around 90%, so in my opinion, simply betting “Fed hikes = market falls” may be too late.
Mitrade +1
My base case is hawkish in the short term: a more restrictive Fed could keep pressure on BTC and tech stocks, especially with 10-year Treasury yields above 5%.
Reuters
But here’s my bet: if the hike happens and Powell isn’t more aggressive than the market already expects, we could see the exact opposite—an initial drop, liquidation of leveraged positions, and then a strong rebound.
₿ BTC: bearish bias initially, but watch for a short squeeze.
Tech: pressure while yields keep rising; I’d look for confirmation before buying the dip.
Gold: surprisingly strong; geopolitics, inflation, and fiscal doubts could keep supporting defensive demand.
MarketWatch
My strategy wouldn’t be chasing the first candle. I’d wait for the Fed move, watch yields and the dollar, and trade the reaction, not the headline.
For me, the most important question isn’t “Will it rise 25 bp?”, but:
How many more hikes is the market willing to tolerate? 👀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Gold #FOMC #Fed #Stocks #Crypto
The market is practically set up for a 25 bp hike after the August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. The odds of a hike are around 90%, so in my opinion, simply betting “Fed hikes = market falls” may be too late.
Mitrade +1
My base case is hawkish in the short term: a more restrictive Fed could keep pressure on BTC and tech stocks, especially with 10-year Treasury yields above 5%.
Reuters
But here’s my bet: if the hike happens and Powell isn’t more aggressive than the market already expects, we could see the exact opposite—an initial drop, liquidation of leveraged positions, and then a strong rebound.
₿ BTC: bearish bias initially, but watch for a short squeeze.
Tech: pressure while yields keep rising; I’d look for confirmation before buying the dip.
Gold: surprisingly strong; geopolitics, inflation, and fiscal doubts could keep supporting defensive demand.
MarketWatch
My strategy wouldn’t be chasing the first candle. I’d wait for the Fed move, watch yields and the dollar, and trade the reaction, not the headline.
For me, the most important question isn’t “Will it rise 25 bp?”, but:
How many more hikes is the market willing to tolerate? 👀
#Bitcoin #BTC #Gold #FOMC #Fed #Stocks #Crypto