August inflation data exceeding expectations and oil prices climbing above $100 have strongly fixed Wall Street’s and markets’ expectations toward a rate hike. In the futures market (CME FedWatch), the probability of a rate increase has risen above 92%. If this step is taken, the Fed will have raised rates for the first time since 2023. Investors will focus not only on this decision, but also on the “dot plot” chart showing Fed members’ interest-rate forecasts for the coming period. It will be possible to read from this whether another rate hike will come during the rest of the year (at the October and December meetings). It is known that there are serious disagreements among FOMC members about the interest-rate decision. Unlike former Chair Powell, who would provide more clarity, the new Chair Kevin Warsh refuses to give the markets a clear “forward guidance” and wants decisions to become clear through tough, data-dependent debates within the FOMC (“good family fight”). This could lead to the language in the meeting statement becoming much shorter and more mysterious#FedRateWatch