Fed day today and ngl I've been refreshing CME FedWatch all morning 😅
So here's where we're at — decision drops 2 PM ET ⏰. Odds have basically flipped in the last few weeks. Back in August everyone was still betting on a hold, jobs data was soft, vibes were dovish. Then CPI came in hotter than expected and boom — hike odds jumped to almost 90% 📈.
Kinda funny too — Warsh took over as Fed chair after Powell's term ended in May, and he was supposed to be the "cut rates" guy. Instead he's out here at Jackson Hole saying inflation hasn't improved enough and the Fed's "got work to do." Data > politics on this one, at least for now.
Not gonna pretend I have this all figured out, but here's my honest lean: if it's a 25bp hike, I'm expecting BTC to dip somewhere around 2-3% in the next 24hrs, yields pop, dollar strengthens. If they hold instead, could see a quick relief bounce, maybe 1-2% up, but I don't think it holds if Warsh's presser tone stays hawkish.
What's everyone else's call — hike or hold? 🤔
Not financial advice, just where my head's at right now.
#FedRateWatch #cpi #fomc #interestrates #ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket
$AKE $BR $LSK
So here's where we're at — decision drops 2 PM ET ⏰. Odds have basically flipped in the last few weeks. Back in August everyone was still betting on a hold, jobs data was soft, vibes were dovish. Then CPI came in hotter than expected and boom — hike odds jumped to almost 90% 📈.
Kinda funny too — Warsh took over as Fed chair after Powell's term ended in May, and he was supposed to be the "cut rates" guy. Instead he's out here at Jackson Hole saying inflation hasn't improved enough and the Fed's "got work to do." Data > politics on this one, at least for now.
Not gonna pretend I have this all figured out, but here's my honest lean: if it's a 25bp hike, I'm expecting BTC to dip somewhere around 2-3% in the next 24hrs, yields pop, dollar strengthens. If they hold instead, could see a quick relief bounce, maybe 1-2% up, but I don't think it holds if Warsh's presser tone stays hawkish.
What's everyone else's call — hike or hold? 🤔
Not financial advice, just where my head's at right now.
#FedRateWatch #cpi #fomc #interestrates #ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket
$AKE $BR $LSK