MSTR dropped 4.316% in 24 hours, and the funding rate is hovering at zero. It’s relatively quiet at this level—longs aren’t paying, and shorts aren’t paying either. The derivatives market is in a wait-and-see mode.
This decline is technical, not a collapse driven by emotions. Saylor has publicly supported Trump, and the market treats MSTR as a proxy for a crypto concept stock. Any Trump comments or policy expectations that are friendly toward cryptocurrencies would, in theory, first lift assets like this. But for now, this narrative hasn’t gained traction. Prices have pulled back, yet the funding rate hasn’t budged, which suggests there isn’t a large influx of new shorts pressing the move, and there are no panic liquidations—positions are just naturally rotating.
The counterargument is simple: if Trump suddenly announces a specific crypto-support policy, MSTR could instantaneously shift from a concept stock to a direct beneficiary, and both price and funding rates would likely surge. The market is betting on that possibility now, but the bet hasn’t been placed heavily yet.
So the second-order effect is that if Trump’s crypto-related trade remains on ice for a long time, the capital making these policy-win bets may lose patience and move out of MSTR to find more directly benefiting assets.
My view is that this correction hasn’t finished yet, but downside selling pressure also isn’t heavy. If the funding rate stays at zero and the price can’t rebound above 130, I’ll wait for it to break below 125 and then watch for any divergence.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MSTR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
This decline is technical, not a collapse driven by emotions. Saylor has publicly supported Trump, and the market treats MSTR as a proxy for a crypto concept stock. Any Trump comments or policy expectations that are friendly toward cryptocurrencies would, in theory, first lift assets like this. But for now, this narrative hasn’t gained traction. Prices have pulled back, yet the funding rate hasn’t budged, which suggests there isn’t a large influx of new shorts pressing the move, and there are no panic liquidations—positions are just naturally rotating.
The counterargument is simple: if Trump suddenly announces a specific crypto-support policy, MSTR could instantaneously shift from a concept stock to a direct beneficiary, and both price and funding rates would likely surge. The market is betting on that possibility now, but the bet hasn’t been placed heavily yet.
So the second-order effect is that if Trump’s crypto-related trade remains on ice for a long time, the capital making these policy-win bets may lose patience and move out of MSTR to find more directly benefiting assets.
My view is that this correction hasn’t finished yet, but downside selling pressure also isn’t heavy. If the funding rate stays at zero and the price can’t rebound above 130, I’ll wait for it to break below 125 and then watch for any divergence.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #MSTR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?