🚨 A Fed rate hike this week is now almost fully priced in — but the bigger question is what happens AFTER it.
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, while markets are now pricing roughly a 90%+ chance of a 25bp rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.
At this point, a single hike may not be the real surprise.
The real risk is that this becomes the beginning of a new tightening cycle.
Sticky inflation, higher energy costs and resilient demand could force the Fed to stay hawkish longer than markets expect. Some Wall Street forecasts are already pointing toward another hike later this year.
For risk assets, that matters.
📈 Higher rates = tighter liquidity
💵 Potentially stronger USD
📉 More pressure on growth stocks and crypto
🔥 BTC volatility could explode around the decision
My base case: 25bp this week, followed by a data-dependent Fed rather than an aggressive hiking cycle — for now.
What do you think?
One-and-done… or are multiple hikes coming? 👀
$XAU $BTC $NVDA
#fedratewatch #BitcoinSlidesTo$76000 #BitcoinReboundsTo$79K #StrategyMarketCapPassesFord #ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, while markets are now pricing roughly a 90%+ chance of a 25bp rate hike at this week’s FOMC meeting.
At this point, a single hike may not be the real surprise.
The real risk is that this becomes the beginning of a new tightening cycle.
Sticky inflation, higher energy costs and resilient demand could force the Fed to stay hawkish longer than markets expect. Some Wall Street forecasts are already pointing toward another hike later this year.
For risk assets, that matters.
📈 Higher rates = tighter liquidity
💵 Potentially stronger USD
📉 More pressure on growth stocks and crypto
🔥 BTC volatility could explode around the decision
My base case: 25bp this week, followed by a data-dependent Fed rather than an aggressive hiking cycle — for now.
What do you think?
One-and-done… or are multiple hikes coming? 👀
$XAU $BTC $NVDA
#fedratewatch #BitcoinSlidesTo$76000 #BitcoinReboundsTo$79K #StrategyMarketCapPassesFord #ClarityActOddsHalveOnPolymarket
