Contract Order Book Daily｜9/15 sees broad-based selloffs; sentiment still remains greedy
$BTC is currently at 75,904, down 3.28% over the past 24 hours—this is no longer just a normal pullback.
ETH is down 3.7%, SOL down 2.71%, while BNB is relatively defensive at “only” down 0.75%; but this kind of scene where major coins turn green in unison is indeed rare.
The backdrop isn’t surprising.
News about the Middle East oil pipeline being blown up is still developing; oil prices are being pushed very high. US stock index futures are falling in tandem, and risk assets are getting punished as a group.
The crypto world also isn’t calm—market plans for the crypto regulatory bill (the Clarity Act) have seen its passage probability cut in half in the short term, and expectations for policy rollout have cooled directly.
This Wednesday, the Fed will release its interest rate decision. There’s also talk in the market about an unexpected rate hike. Nobody wants to go heavily long or short ahead of the decision.
What’s interesting is that the Fear & Greed Index is still stuck at 69—within the greedy zone—which doesn’t match the price plunge at all.
Even more unusual: $BTC ’s funding rate. Longs are still willing to pay a 0.1% funding rate to go long, with no signs of mass retreat. Open interest has only shrunk by 1.1%, and large-lot long positions still account for 64%.
This combination—prices dropping, sentiment not turning fearful, and longs not exiting—often means longs haven’t yet admitted defeat. If price truly breaks below a key level, the likely squeeze will be longs, not shorts.
Funding rates for ETH and SOL have already flipped negative. Shorts are gaining the upper hand on the funding side, and they’re clearly not moving along the same path as BTC.
Among smaller coins, ASTR and STEEM have seen funding rates plunge to below -1.9%. Shorts are packed in tightly; any rebound could easily slap them in the face. Coins like BOT and SOON, which still have positive funding rates, are comparatively safer for now.
This Wednesday’s Fed decision and the House tax bill review are the next two critical checkpoints. If oil prices keep surging, the risk appetite line likely won’t recover easily.
Whether this leg of the $BTC move is backed by longs with enough conviction to not retreat—will be clear over the next few days.
Live record: This account currently holds $FOGO long positions. As long as the rationale hasn’t changed, I will continue holding.
Compiled with assistance from Claude Fable 5. For information reference only—please verify independently.
$BTC is currently at 75,904, down 3.28% over the past 24 hours—this is no longer just a normal pullback.
ETH is down 3.7%, SOL down 2.71%, while BNB is relatively defensive at “only” down 0.75%; but this kind of scene where major coins turn green in unison is indeed rare.
The backdrop isn’t surprising.
News about the Middle East oil pipeline being blown up is still developing; oil prices are being pushed very high. US stock index futures are falling in tandem, and risk assets are getting punished as a group.
The crypto world also isn’t calm—market plans for the crypto regulatory bill (the Clarity Act) have seen its passage probability cut in half in the short term, and expectations for policy rollout have cooled directly.
This Wednesday, the Fed will release its interest rate decision. There’s also talk in the market about an unexpected rate hike. Nobody wants to go heavily long or short ahead of the decision.
What’s interesting is that the Fear & Greed Index is still stuck at 69—within the greedy zone—which doesn’t match the price plunge at all.
Even more unusual: $BTC ’s funding rate. Longs are still willing to pay a 0.1% funding rate to go long, with no signs of mass retreat. Open interest has only shrunk by 1.1%, and large-lot long positions still account for 64%.
This combination—prices dropping, sentiment not turning fearful, and longs not exiting—often means longs haven’t yet admitted defeat. If price truly breaks below a key level, the likely squeeze will be longs, not shorts.
Funding rates for ETH and SOL have already flipped negative. Shorts are gaining the upper hand on the funding side, and they’re clearly not moving along the same path as BTC.
Among smaller coins, ASTR and STEEM have seen funding rates plunge to below -1.9%. Shorts are packed in tightly; any rebound could easily slap them in the face. Coins like BOT and SOON, which still have positive funding rates, are comparatively safer for now.
This Wednesday’s Fed decision and the House tax bill review are the next two critical checkpoints. If oil prices keep surging, the risk appetite line likely won’t recover easily.
Whether this leg of the $BTC move is backed by longs with enough conviction to not retreat—will be clear over the next few days.
Live record: This account currently holds $FOGO long positions. As long as the rationale hasn’t changed, I will continue holding.
Compiled with assistance from Claude Fable 5. For information reference only—please verify independently.
