#fedratewatch September FOMC: I’m checking the bond market first.
A 25bp hike is my working expectation after August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. The uncertainty is how much more tightening officials think the economy needs.
I’d start with Treasury yields and the dollar. If both climb after the press conference, I’d become more cautious about BTC, altcoins and tech stocks.
If yields fall despite a hike, I’d ask why. Less aggressive policy expectations could help markets recover. Growing recession fears would tell a different story.
Gold deserves that distinction too. Higher real yields can pressure it, while demand for protection can support it. A gold rally alongside falling stocks wouldn’t surprise me.
Oil could struggle on weaker demand expectations, although supply disruptions could outweigh that pressure.
I wouldn’t declare a prolonged hiking cycle yet. Persistent inflation could justify more increases; cooling prices and weaker employment could support a pause.
For a possible BTC long, I’d want reclaimed resistance to hold as support. If it fails, I’d drop the setup. Position size would depend on the loss I can accept.
I can live with missing the first few minutes.
What would you check first: yields, the dollar, or BTC?
#FedRateWatch #BTC #XAU
A 25bp hike is my working expectation after August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. The uncertainty is how much more tightening officials think the economy needs.
I’d start with Treasury yields and the dollar. If both climb after the press conference, I’d become more cautious about BTC, altcoins and tech stocks.
If yields fall despite a hike, I’d ask why. Less aggressive policy expectations could help markets recover. Growing recession fears would tell a different story.
Gold deserves that distinction too. Higher real yields can pressure it, while demand for protection can support it. A gold rally alongside falling stocks wouldn’t surprise me.
Oil could struggle on weaker demand expectations, although supply disruptions could outweigh that pressure.
I wouldn’t declare a prolonged hiking cycle yet. Persistent inflation could justify more increases; cooling prices and weaker employment could support a pause.
For a possible BTC long, I’d want reclaimed resistance to hold as support. If it fails, I’d drop the setup. Position size would depend on the loss I can accept.
I can live with missing the first few minutes.
What would you check first: yields, the dollar, or BTC?
#FedRateWatch #BTC #XAU
