🚨 FOMC September: The Market Is Holding Its Breath.
August’s Core CPI climbed 0.3% MoM, reinforcing the view that inflation is proving more stubborn than expected. Markets are now pricing in an almost 90% probability of a 25bps Fed rate hike.
My view:
A 25bps hike is the most likely outcome—but the bigger question isn’t the hike itself. It’s what the Fed signals next.
📈 If this is a one-time hike:
* BTC could experience an initial selloff before rebounding as uncertainty fades.
* Tech stocks may stay volatile but recover if the Fed hints at a pause.
* Gold could weaken in the short term due to higher real yields.
📉 If this marks the start of another hiking cycle:
* Bitcoin may face stronger downside pressure as liquidity tightens.
* Growth and AI-driven tech stocks could struggle under higher discount rates.
* Gold may remain under pressure initially, though long-term geopolitical risks could eventually support it.
My Trading Plan
🟠 BTC: Holding my core position and buying only on major dips—no FOMO.
📊 Tech Stocks: Staying selective and waiting for confirmation after the Fed decision.
🥇 Gold: Watching for volatility before adding any new positions.
The market often reacts more to Fed guidance than the rate decision itself. One sentence from the Fed Chair can move billions of dollars across global markets.
What’s your prediction?
🔥 25bp hike and done?
🔥 Or the beginning of a new tightening cycle?
#FedRateWatch
$SAGA
$AKE
$BR
August’s Core CPI climbed 0.3% MoM, reinforcing the view that inflation is proving more stubborn than expected. Markets are now pricing in an almost 90% probability of a 25bps Fed rate hike.
My view:
A 25bps hike is the most likely outcome—but the bigger question isn’t the hike itself. It’s what the Fed signals next.
📈 If this is a one-time hike:
* BTC could experience an initial selloff before rebounding as uncertainty fades.
* Tech stocks may stay volatile but recover if the Fed hints at a pause.
* Gold could weaken in the short term due to higher real yields.
📉 If this marks the start of another hiking cycle:
* Bitcoin may face stronger downside pressure as liquidity tightens.
* Growth and AI-driven tech stocks could struggle under higher discount rates.
* Gold may remain under pressure initially, though long-term geopolitical risks could eventually support it.
My Trading Plan
🟠 BTC: Holding my core position and buying only on major dips—no FOMO.
📊 Tech Stocks: Staying selective and waiting for confirmation after the Fed decision.
🥇 Gold: Watching for volatility before adding any new positions.
The market often reacts more to Fed guidance than the rate decision itself. One sentence from the Fed Chair can move billions of dollars across global markets.
What’s your prediction?
🔥 25bp hike and done?
🔥 Or the beginning of a new tightening cycle?
#FedRateWatch
$SAGA
$AKE
$BR
