Bitcoin today fell to a new low since 9/2. Three on-chain things to note:
① Net inflow +2,004. It crossed the distribution restart line—on 9/11-9/15, the big players who bought at around $77k are now flipping and sending the coins back to exchanges. Whale deposits rose +15.6% in a day; the deposit-withdrawal spread widened overnight. Today’s drop pushed Bitcoin below its new low since 9/2. Three on-chain things: ① Net inflow +2,004. Crossing the distribution restart line—those big holders who picked up at $77k from 9/11-9/15 are now flipping, sending the coins back. It moved +142 points into positive territory.
② But there are buyers: addresses holding near $76.2k are up +3,817, and the liquidation wave has stopped. Unconfirmed transactions -55%, and fees are pinned to the floor—not panic selling; it’s an orderly, accelerated decline.
③ The Clarity Act is very likely to fail (the market-implied passage rate is only 18-21%); the only independent positive catalyst is missed. At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, the Fed’s ruling; at 2:30 a.m., the press conference (Wash). Rate-hike pricing is 87-90%. My view: the market is front-running—don’t guess the direction before the ruling. The price levels you should watch: $74.7k → $74k → $69k-$74k. When it reaches there, that’s the “cheap zone” described by on-chain data.
#BTC #FOMC #CLARITY法案 #链上数据 $BTC
$ETH
① Net inflow +2,004. It crossed the distribution restart line—on 9/11-9/15, the big players who bought at around $77k are now flipping and sending the coins back to exchanges. Whale deposits rose +15.6% in a day; the deposit-withdrawal spread widened overnight. Today’s drop pushed Bitcoin below its new low since 9/2. Three on-chain things: ① Net inflow +2,004. Crossing the distribution restart line—those big holders who picked up at $77k from 9/11-9/15 are now flipping, sending the coins back. It moved +142 points into positive territory.
② But there are buyers: addresses holding near $76.2k are up +3,817, and the liquidation wave has stopped. Unconfirmed transactions -55%, and fees are pinned to the floor—not panic selling; it’s an orderly, accelerated decline.
③ The Clarity Act is very likely to fail (the market-implied passage rate is only 18-21%); the only independent positive catalyst is missed. At 2:00 a.m. Beijing time, the Fed’s ruling; at 2:30 a.m., the press conference (Wash). Rate-hike pricing is 87-90%. My view: the market is front-running—don’t guess the direction before the ruling. The price levels you should watch: $74.7k → $74k → $69k-$74k. When it reaches there, that’s the “cheap zone” described by on-chain data.
#BTC #FOMC #CLARITY法案 #链上数据 $BTC
$ETH
