【Rate Hike Betting Approaches Nearly 90%: Core CPI Again Rose 0.3% in August】
In August, core CPI rose another 0.3% month-over-month. Geopolitical conflicts have also pushed up oil and shipping costs, and expectations of second-round inflation are rising.
This week, the market is pricing in a 25-basis-point hike, and bets are already approaching nearly 90%. Most likely, it’s been locked in.
And this isn’t a one-off move. This defensive phase of “Higher for Longer” will continue.
Tightening liquidity, the scenarios for three asset classes, and my positioning:
📌 I. How to look at assets
1️⃣ Crypto market ($BTC )｜Short-term pressure, long-term upside—prepare for a downside drawdown
Risk-free rates and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are both at elevated levels, so leveraged assets are taking the first hit. The selloff in tech stocks and the Nasdaq as valuations get cut will weigh on risk appetite in the overnight session. Be careful of bull traps from a short-term rebound. Only move when spot volume picks up on the right side—don’t try to probe the bottom with futures.
2️⃣ Tech stocks (semiconductors/AI)｜Near-term downside pressure—squeeze the bubble
Higher rates raise the discount rate. Big players are also cutting blind Capex. The bubble hasn’t been fully squeezed yet. Defensive sectors (energy, necessities/consumer staples) should keep outperforming growth stocks.
3️⃣ Gold ($PAXG )｜Most resilient
A strong dollar and rate hikes weigh on gold’s upside flexibility, but high oil prices and the erosion of fiat purchasing power are consistently being priced in. Demand for inflation hedging and sovereign safe-haven support is providing a floor. On pullbacks, I see opportunities to accumulate in batches.
🛡️ II. My positions and playbook
Spot defense: keep the total equity allocation below 60%, and hold more stablecoins (USDT/USDC) to wait for the liquidity turning point.
Hedge: maintain derivatives base-position hedges at 30%-40%. On rebounds, short into strength to lock in downside risk for the spot holdings.
Pending orders: don’t chase any breakout trades. Only place staggered bids at key support levels for BTC and PAXG.
#美联储加息是否已成定局 #BTC #PAXG #宏观分析 #加密市场
In August, core CPI rose another 0.3% month-over-month. Geopolitical conflicts have also pushed up oil and shipping costs, and expectations of second-round inflation are rising.
This week, the market is pricing in a 25-basis-point hike, and bets are already approaching nearly 90%. Most likely, it’s been locked in.
And this isn’t a one-off move. This defensive phase of “Higher for Longer” will continue.
Tightening liquidity, the scenarios for three asset classes, and my positioning:
📌 I. How to look at assets
1️⃣ Crypto market ($BTC )｜Short-term pressure, long-term upside—prepare for a downside drawdown
Risk-free rates and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield are both at elevated levels, so leveraged assets are taking the first hit. The selloff in tech stocks and the Nasdaq as valuations get cut will weigh on risk appetite in the overnight session. Be careful of bull traps from a short-term rebound. Only move when spot volume picks up on the right side—don’t try to probe the bottom with futures.
2️⃣ Tech stocks (semiconductors/AI)｜Near-term downside pressure—squeeze the bubble
Higher rates raise the discount rate. Big players are also cutting blind Capex. The bubble hasn’t been fully squeezed yet. Defensive sectors (energy, necessities/consumer staples) should keep outperforming growth stocks.
3️⃣ Gold ($PAXG )｜Most resilient
A strong dollar and rate hikes weigh on gold’s upside flexibility, but high oil prices and the erosion of fiat purchasing power are consistently being priced in. Demand for inflation hedging and sovereign safe-haven support is providing a floor. On pullbacks, I see opportunities to accumulate in batches.
🛡️ II. My positions and playbook
Spot defense: keep the total equity allocation below 60%, and hold more stablecoins (USDT/USDC) to wait for the liquidity turning point.
Hedge: maintain derivatives base-position hedges at 30%-40%. On rebounds, short into strength to lock in downside risk for the spot holdings.
Pending orders: don’t chase any breakout trades. Only place staggered bids at key support levels for BTC and PAXG.
#美联储加息是否已成定局 #BTC #PAXG #宏观分析 #加密市场