The real FOMC trade isn’t the first 25bp hike. It’s what comes after it.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM, and markets are now pricing roughly a 90%+ probability of a 25bp hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
So I’m less interested in debating whether the Fed hikes and more interested in one question:
Is September a one-off, or the beginning of another hiking cycle?
If the FOMC delivers 25bp but signals that this is a single move, the initial risk-off reaction could fade. BTC and tech stocks could stabilize as markets start pricing a pause.
But if Powell and the projections leave the door open to another hike, the setup becomes much harder for risk assets. The 10-year Treasury yield is already above 5%, meaning higher rates are no longer just a Fed story they are directly affecting valuations and liquidity.
My bias: cautious on BTC and tech into the decision. Gold may face short-term pressure from higher yields, but I’d rather look for opportunities on weakness than chase the move.
The hike may already be priced.
The surprise will be the path after September.
#FedRateWatch
$BTC $AKE $SAGA
August core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM, and markets are now pricing roughly a 90%+ probability of a 25bp hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
So I’m less interested in debating whether the Fed hikes and more interested in one question:
Is September a one-off, or the beginning of another hiking cycle?
If the FOMC delivers 25bp but signals that this is a single move, the initial risk-off reaction could fade. BTC and tech stocks could stabilize as markets start pricing a pause.
But if Powell and the projections leave the door open to another hike, the setup becomes much harder for risk assets. The 10-year Treasury yield is already above 5%, meaning higher rates are no longer just a Fed story they are directly affecting valuations and liquidity.
My bias: cautious on BTC and tech into the decision. Gold may face short-term pressure from higher yields, but I’d rather look for opportunities on weakness than chase the move.
The hike may already be priced.
The surprise will be the path after September.
#FedRateWatch
$BTC $AKE $SAGA
