🔷 FOMC tomorrow: everyone expects a hike, but they don’t trade the number!
Tomorrow 16.09 at 21:00 (MSK) the Fed will announce the rate. The market is 90% confident in a 25 bps increase — this figure is already priced in, nobody trades it. They trade the Dot Plot text and Powell’s wording!
🧠 My thought: The Dot Plot will show the median forecasts for 2027: if it moves up — this is the beginning of tightening, the market drops for weeks; if it holds — it’s a hedge against oil-driven inflation, the market rises. At 21:30, Powell can flip everything with one phrase: «energy pressure is temporary» = bulls rush to buy; «wage inflation is dangerous» = bears short. Inflation is 3.4%, oil is $100, NFP +162K — everything points to a rate hike, but the market has already bought that number. So tomorrow isn’t about the rate — it’s about what the Fed thinks to do next.
Impact on assets:
• BTC: dovish hike = long from $76-77K; hawkish = I’m watching for $73K
• Techs (NASDAQ): any hint of the cycle = bearish; only a dovish signal will bring growth
• Gold: holds on the «temporary pressure» narrative; it will fall on tough rhetoric
⚠️ Until 22:30 (MSK) I’m sitting with no positions. After the press conference: if Powell is dovish — long BTC from $76-77K, take profit $79-80K; if hawkish — I’m waiting for a pullback to $73K and buying there. Don’t watch the rate — watch Powell’s phrase!
#FedRateWatch
Tomorrow 16.09 at 21:00 (MSK) the Fed will announce the rate. The market is 90% confident in a 25 bps increase — this figure is already priced in, nobody trades it. They trade the Dot Plot text and Powell’s wording!
🧠 My thought: The Dot Plot will show the median forecasts for 2027: if it moves up — this is the beginning of tightening, the market drops for weeks; if it holds — it’s a hedge against oil-driven inflation, the market rises. At 21:30, Powell can flip everything with one phrase: «energy pressure is temporary» = bulls rush to buy; «wage inflation is dangerous» = bears short. Inflation is 3.4%, oil is $100, NFP +162K — everything points to a rate hike, but the market has already bought that number. So tomorrow isn’t about the rate — it’s about what the Fed thinks to do next.
Impact on assets:
• BTC: dovish hike = long from $76-77K; hawkish = I’m watching for $73K
• Techs (NASDAQ): any hint of the cycle = bearish; only a dovish signal will bring growth
• Gold: holds on the «temporary pressure» narrative; it will fall on tough rhetoric
⚠️ Until 22:30 (MSK) I’m sitting with no positions. After the press conference: if Powell is dovish — long BTC from $76-77K, take profit $79-80K; if hawkish — I’m waiting for a pullback to $73K and buying there. Don’t watch the rate — watch Powell’s phrase!
#FedRateWatch
