The FOMC meeting gets underway tonight, with the decision coming out early Wednesday morning. It was supposed to be a calm, wait-and-see night—but the procedural vote on the CLARITY bill in the Senate also landed on the same day.
With two catalysts stacked on top of each other, the market is getting lively.
Let me start with some data: the probability of a rate hike is now 86.7%. Note—this isn’t the probability of “a 25-basis-point increase.” It’s the actual price the market is putting on it. What does 86.7% mean? In a casino, a dealer won’t offer you odds like that unless they’re also panicking.
Now let’s talk about CLARITY. Don’t just treat this bill as “crypto-positive” on the surface—its real weight is this: if it passes, the U.S. crypto market will, for the first time, have a clear, written statutory basis for compliance. If it’s rejected—or if the odds of passage keep sliding—then in the short term it’s essentially an emotion-driven selloff. We’ve already seen a preview today: the probability dropped from 33% to 18%, and BTC was pulled back from the 80,000 level to 77.8K directly.
What I find most interesting is the way BTC failed to break through 80,000 this time. It wasn’t a sudden crash—it was grinding up and grinding back down, like punching through cotton. With integer levels, the first attempt is always the hardest. To break through, you don’t just need capital—you need consensus: “everyone believes this time is different.” Clearly, we don’t have that yet.
My plan hasn’t changed: before the decision comes out, I won’t add to positions or try to bottom-pick. I’m reducing my exposure to a level where I can sleep at night. There are too many variables this week— the more variables there are, the fewer moves you should make.
Oh, and XRP led today. It’s still the same logic from that regulatory story. In a market like this, clear narratives are priced higher than complicated ones.
#BTC #FOMC #CLARITY #XRP #FuturaKey
With two catalysts stacked on top of each other, the market is getting lively.
Let me start with some data: the probability of a rate hike is now 86.7%. Note—this isn’t the probability of “a 25-basis-point increase.” It’s the actual price the market is putting on it. What does 86.7% mean? In a casino, a dealer won’t offer you odds like that unless they’re also panicking.
Now let’s talk about CLARITY. Don’t just treat this bill as “crypto-positive” on the surface—its real weight is this: if it passes, the U.S. crypto market will, for the first time, have a clear, written statutory basis for compliance. If it’s rejected—or if the odds of passage keep sliding—then in the short term it’s essentially an emotion-driven selloff. We’ve already seen a preview today: the probability dropped from 33% to 18%, and BTC was pulled back from the 80,000 level to 77.8K directly.
What I find most interesting is the way BTC failed to break through 80,000 this time. It wasn’t a sudden crash—it was grinding up and grinding back down, like punching through cotton. With integer levels, the first attempt is always the hardest. To break through, you don’t just need capital—you need consensus: “everyone believes this time is different.” Clearly, we don’t have that yet.
My plan hasn’t changed: before the decision comes out, I won’t add to positions or try to bottom-pick. I’m reducing my exposure to a level where I can sleep at night. There are too many variables this week— the more variables there are, the fewer moves you should make.
Oh, and XRP led today. It’s still the same logic from that regulatory story. In a market like this, clear narratives are priced higher than complicated ones.
#BTC #FOMC #CLARITY #XRP #FuturaKey
