SMCI fell 5.14% in 24 hours. Put that drawdown among AI server stocks and it’s not exactly surprising. The price is stuck at 37.25, with trading volume of 2.86 million, open interest of 38,532.2 contracts, and a funding rate of 0. That’s all the data there is—but what I’m really watching is the momentum behind it: as geopolitical tensions heat up, market patience for growth stocks like this is being consumed rapidly.
Why do I say that? First, the funding rate is zero, so bulls and bears are temporarily balanced, but the price is still moving downward. This shows that the selling pressure is real and tangible; it’s not just shorts crowding in and hammering it. Instead, buying demand is withdrawing. Second, while the open interest number alone isn’t extreme, combined with the price decline, you can infer that some longs are cutting losses and exiting, or shifting their positions elsewhere. As political and military events escalate, risk-hedging sentiment rises. The first reaction of capital is to pull back from high-beta, high-valuation tech names like SMCI—either rotating into defense-related assets, or simply going to cash. This isn’t a problem with SMCI itself; it’s a switch in macro risk appetite that turns its stock price into an outlet for sentiment.
What’s the strongest counterevidence? If the geopolitical situation suddenly eases, or if SMCI secures a defense-sector order that changes expectations (admittedly unlikely), the stock could rebound sharply. But I think what the market is overlooking is the siphon effect these kinds of events can have on the tech sector’s funding chain. The second-order impact is clear: growth funds near quarter-end, facing redemption pressure, will prioritize cutting positions that have recently underperformed—like SMCI. Liquidity then flows into more certain sectors, such as energy or defense/industrial military stocks, even if their fundamentals aren’t as strong.
My take is simple: at this level, SMCI is more likely to keep falling than to rise. The invalidation conditions are also straightforward: if the stock can break above and hold the $40 psychological and technical level on heavy volume, then my logic fails. Crossing $40 means the market’s risk appetite for SMCI is back.
As for action: I’m not doing anything right now. This isn’t a strong one-way signal, and the open interest data is relatively one-dimensional. I need to see a clearer chain of evidence—for example, the price continues drifting lower while open interest slowly increases, which would be a sign that shorts are quietly building positions. At that point, I would consider shorting with a small position size, with a stop-loss placed above 40.5. If it just chops sideways here, I’ll keep observing and wait for a confirmed breakout direction.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SMCI
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
Why do I say that? First, the funding rate is zero, so bulls and bears are temporarily balanced, but the price is still moving downward. This shows that the selling pressure is real and tangible; it’s not just shorts crowding in and hammering it. Instead, buying demand is withdrawing. Second, while the open interest number alone isn’t extreme, combined with the price decline, you can infer that some longs are cutting losses and exiting, or shifting their positions elsewhere. As political and military events escalate, risk-hedging sentiment rises. The first reaction of capital is to pull back from high-beta, high-valuation tech names like SMCI—either rotating into defense-related assets, or simply going to cash. This isn’t a problem with SMCI itself; it’s a switch in macro risk appetite that turns its stock price into an outlet for sentiment.
What’s the strongest counterevidence? If the geopolitical situation suddenly eases, or if SMCI secures a defense-sector order that changes expectations (admittedly unlikely), the stock could rebound sharply. But I think what the market is overlooking is the siphon effect these kinds of events can have on the tech sector’s funding chain. The second-order impact is clear: growth funds near quarter-end, facing redemption pressure, will prioritize cutting positions that have recently underperformed—like SMCI. Liquidity then flows into more certain sectors, such as energy or defense/industrial military stocks, even if their fundamentals aren’t as strong.
My take is simple: at this level, SMCI is more likely to keep falling than to rise. The invalidation conditions are also straightforward: if the stock can break above and hold the $40 psychological and technical level on heavy volume, then my logic fails. Crossing $40 means the market’s risk appetite for SMCI is back.
As for action: I’m not doing anything right now. This isn’t a strong one-way signal, and the open interest data is relatively one-dimensional. I need to see a clearer chain of evidence—for example, the price continues drifting lower while open interest slowly increases, which would be a sign that shorts are quietly building positions. At that point, I would consider shorting with a small position size, with a stop-loss placed above 40.5. If it just chops sideways here, I’ll keep observing and wait for a confirmed breakout direction.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SMCI
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?