$ARM 24 hours saw a 5.256% drop. The funding rate is still positive at 0.00005188, and the position size of 27,512.52 hasn’t changed much. The moment Trump brings up trade policy, US stock futures contracts get hit first—tech-sector tickers like ARM are even more sensitive.
The price is falling, but funding is positive. That clearly indicates longs are adding positions and stubbornly holding on. This is a classic trapped-position structure. The market is betting Trump will soften his stance afterward, but if they’re wrong, it turns into a chain of liquidations. Since the position size is steady and hasn’t been cut, it suggests most people are still propping up their positions, waiting for a rebound.
The strongest counter-evidence: if Trump suddenly shifts to support technology subsidies, ARM can snap back immediately. The second-order effect is that these long positions become fuel—if price breaks below 230, it will trigger a cascade of forced liquidations, and liquidity will get drained in an instant.
My invalidation condition is: if the price reclaims above 250, it means the market is ignoring policy risk. Action: open a short around 242 at 3x leverage, stop-loss at 250, target 220. If it breaks below 230, add to the position.
Trading label: #TradFi #链上美股 #ARM
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
The price is falling, but funding is positive. That clearly indicates longs are adding positions and stubbornly holding on. This is a classic trapped-position structure. The market is betting Trump will soften his stance afterward, but if they’re wrong, it turns into a chain of liquidations. Since the position size is steady and hasn’t been cut, it suggests most people are still propping up their positions, waiting for a rebound.
The strongest counter-evidence: if Trump suddenly shifts to support technology subsidies, ARM can snap back immediately. The second-order effect is that these long positions become fuel—if price breaks below 230, it will trigger a cascade of forced liquidations, and liquidity will get drained in an instant.
My invalidation condition is: if the price reclaims above 250, it means the market is ignoring policy risk. Action: open a short around 242 at 3x leverage, stop-loss at 250, target 220. If it breaks below 230, add to the position.
Trading label: #TradFi #链上美股 #ARM
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?