On the early morning of $BTC 17, at 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is scheduled to be released. Right now, most people in the market are optimistic and expecting a rate hike, but the monthly line indicators are bullish. Is the rate-hike rally going to fall? This feels a bit like going against
The situation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and U.S. Treasury yields are already nearing 5%. The August CPI data is 3.4%, far from the 2% target. The probability of a rate hike is very high.
I think if they hike once by 25 basis points, the market’s fluctuations shouldn’t be too big. The key focus is on what Waller (沃什) says.
For example:
1. This rate hike is just a test of market conditions; afterward, they’ll continue to observe and won’t tighten further. For instance, if the Middle East situation drives oil prices up and inflation rises somewhat, but remains within a controllable range—then they’ll look at how oil prices and tariff situations develop. If things improve, they won’t continue tightening policy.
2. There’s also the big inflation risk. Striving for the 2% inflation target isn’t easy. If the market reacts well to this rate hike and if data across different areas shows improvement, they may hike further later.
Personally, I think the odds are that they will likely hike by 25 basis points. But afterward, we might see the kind of messaging in point 1—seemingly a rate hike, yet influenced by more dovish remarks from Waller’s subsequent press conference. Under that backdrop, the market could actually rise, and the monthly trend could be bullish all the way through.
Is there a possibility of a sudden surprise—no rate hike? 🤭🤭🤭#美联储利率决议预测
The above is my personal analysis and understanding. Please refer to it with caution.
The situation in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher, and U.S. Treasury yields are already nearing 5%. The August CPI data is 3.4%, far from the 2% target. The probability of a rate hike is very high.
I think if they hike once by 25 basis points, the market’s fluctuations shouldn’t be too big. The key focus is on what Waller (沃什) says.
For example:
1. This rate hike is just a test of market conditions; afterward, they’ll continue to observe and won’t tighten further. For instance, if the Middle East situation drives oil prices up and inflation rises somewhat, but remains within a controllable range—then they’ll look at how oil prices and tariff situations develop. If things improve, they won’t continue tightening policy.
2. There’s also the big inflation risk. Striving for the 2% inflation target isn’t easy. If the market reacts well to this rate hike and if data across different areas shows improvement, they may hike further later.
Personally, I think the odds are that they will likely hike by 25 basis points. But afterward, we might see the kind of messaging in point 1—seemingly a rate hike, yet influenced by more dovish remarks from Waller’s subsequent press conference. Under that backdrop, the market could actually rise, and the monthly trend could be bullish all the way through.
Is there a possibility of a sudden surprise—no rate hike? 🤭🤭🤭#美联储利率决议预测
The above is my personal analysis and understanding. Please refer to it with caution.
