Just as it was said that an interest-rate hike is almost certain, the oil price is back to cause trouble: what exactly is BTC clinging to?
In the previous post, I said that the September FOMC is very likely to raise rates. Now, with oil prices rising, inflation pressure is increasing, and the probability of a rate hike is further solidified.
According to CryptoBriefing, market expectations for a September FOMC rate hike continue to heat up, with rising oil prices being the main driver. The logic is simple: oil prices → inflation → the Fed is forced to tighten → borrowing costs rise → economic growth faces pressure. In my last post, I talked about why BTC still hadn’t fallen around $77,633; now the fundamentals have another weight added on the short side.
Impact on the market
- Short term: Risk assets fear “tighter money” the most. The transmission path is straightforward: rate-hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields rise → capital rotates from cash-flow–less assets like BTC into fixed income → price pressure. BTC is currently $77,633.64 (24h +1.24%), and ETH is $2,498.42; both have seen their gains narrow, suggesting bullish momentum is already fading.
- Medium term: If the rate hike lands and the dot plot is hawkish, the Q4 liquidity environment will likely be tighter than the market expects. Altcoins (high-beta names like SOL $100.98 and XRP $1.39) typically experience larger pullbacks than BTC.
My view
I’m bearish, with a clear direction. BTC around $77,633 is currently pricing in expectations for a 25-basis-point hike. But if oil prices continue to push the Fed toward 50 bps—or even more hawkish wording—there’s no reason for the price to hold steady here. The key support below is around the $75K area; a break would open up deeper downside. If the rebound can’t reclaim $80K, then the trend will be dominated by the bears. ETH is weaker than BTC (up only 0.96% in the last 24h), so if it falls, it’s likely to fall harder.
I’m 70% confident in this call; the remaining 30% is left to the market. If there’s an unexpected CPI cooling ahead of the FOMC, the script would need to be rewritten. If I’m wrong, go easy on me—I’m only hedging with a small position.
🎯 Expected impact
- Coins: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish 📉 Predict a decline
- Time frame: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ This does not constitute investment advice
In the previous post, I said that the September FOMC is very likely to raise rates. Now, with oil prices rising, inflation pressure is increasing, and the probability of a rate hike is further solidified.
According to CryptoBriefing, market expectations for a September FOMC rate hike continue to heat up, with rising oil prices being the main driver. The logic is simple: oil prices → inflation → the Fed is forced to tighten → borrowing costs rise → economic growth faces pressure. In my last post, I talked about why BTC still hadn’t fallen around $77,633; now the fundamentals have another weight added on the short side.
Impact on the market
- Short term: Risk assets fear “tighter money” the most. The transmission path is straightforward: rate-hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields rise → capital rotates from cash-flow–less assets like BTC into fixed income → price pressure. BTC is currently $77,633.64 (24h +1.24%), and ETH is $2,498.42; both have seen their gains narrow, suggesting bullish momentum is already fading.
- Medium term: If the rate hike lands and the dot plot is hawkish, the Q4 liquidity environment will likely be tighter than the market expects. Altcoins (high-beta names like SOL $100.98 and XRP $1.39) typically experience larger pullbacks than BTC.
My view
I’m bearish, with a clear direction. BTC around $77,633 is currently pricing in expectations for a 25-basis-point hike. But if oil prices continue to push the Fed toward 50 bps—or even more hawkish wording—there’s no reason for the price to hold steady here. The key support below is around the $75K area; a break would open up deeper downside. If the rebound can’t reclaim $80K, then the trend will be dominated by the bears. ETH is weaker than BTC (up only 0.96% in the last 24h), so if it falls, it’s likely to fall harder.
I’m 70% confident in this call; the remaining 30% is left to the market. If there’s an unexpected CPI cooling ahead of the FOMC, the script would need to be rewritten. If I’m wrong, go easy on me—I’m only hedging with a small position.
🎯 Expected impact
- Coins: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish 📉 Predict a decline
- Time frame: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
⚠️ This does not constitute investment advice
