After the first wave of gains today ($BTC ), short-term indicators look bearish. The market is rising by moving in a range (67300–68000), which resembles a pattern of mild upward movement where the high and low points oscillate in sync—this is different from last Friday, when short-term indicators turned bearish and immediately triggered a sell-off. Last Friday’s mid-term indicators lagged, and the short-term weakness led directly to a dump.
Therefore: unless the mid-term indicators are repaired perfectly while the long-term indicators are also bullish, trading contracts to chase a slightly longer move will still carry risk. Focus on swing trading instead, step aside, and choose your entry point later.
In fact, this current market and last Friday’s market share the same commonality: mid-term indicators lagged. Although price rose to around 68300 and the 1-hour indicators have repaired (so far, still okay), the mid-term 4H and 6H indicators are still lagging. So the best setup is for price to break above 78600 and hold. Then it should consolidate and decline in a range of 78600–79700 to further repair the mid-term indicators, and only afterward would a one-direction upward momentum emerge.
As of now, 78600 is still a major resistance hurdle. If price can’t hold there, there’s a chance the market will return to 76100 again due to the lagging mid-term indicators.
Put simply: on the daily timeframe, the difference between Bollinger bands oscillation in the middle-lower band area versus the middle-upper band area. Oscillations between the middle and upper bands, with indicators repaired, can lift the entire market sentiment toward bullishness. But oscillations in the middle-lower band area, where indicator repair is incomplete, can eventually break below support after enough time—leading into the next phase downward.
So 78600 determines the direction of what comes next. If it breaks through and holds, price should continue higher—possibly even breaking to new highs around 84500–85000. If it can’t hold or truly can’t break through, then it will likely fall back to 76100, even breaking lower.
There are many major news items this Tuesday. Please stay cautious with your trading; otherwise it’s the difference between heaven and hell.
The above are my thoughts and suggestions. Please refer to them cautiously!
Therefore: unless the mid-term indicators are repaired perfectly while the long-term indicators are also bullish, trading contracts to chase a slightly longer move will still carry risk. Focus on swing trading instead, step aside, and choose your entry point later.
In fact, this current market and last Friday’s market share the same commonality: mid-term indicators lagged. Although price rose to around 68300 and the 1-hour indicators have repaired (so far, still okay), the mid-term 4H and 6H indicators are still lagging. So the best setup is for price to break above 78600 and hold. Then it should consolidate and decline in a range of 78600–79700 to further repair the mid-term indicators, and only afterward would a one-direction upward momentum emerge.
As of now, 78600 is still a major resistance hurdle. If price can’t hold there, there’s a chance the market will return to 76100 again due to the lagging mid-term indicators.
Put simply: on the daily timeframe, the difference between Bollinger bands oscillation in the middle-lower band area versus the middle-upper band area. Oscillations between the middle and upper bands, with indicators repaired, can lift the entire market sentiment toward bullishness. But oscillations in the middle-lower band area, where indicator repair is incomplete, can eventually break below support after enough time—leading into the next phase downward.
So 78600 determines the direction of what comes next. If it breaks through and holds, price should continue higher—possibly even breaking to new highs around 84500–85000. If it can’t hold or truly can’t break through, then it will likely fall back to 76100, even breaking lower.
There are many major news items this Tuesday. Please stay cautious with your trading; otherwise it’s the difference between heaven and hell.
The above are my thoughts and suggestions. Please refer to them cautiously!
