$MARA 24 hours down 4.271%, price 11.43, open interest 10741.07. The price is drifting lower, but OI hasn’t collapsed, which suggests this drop is being hard-held by positions—it’s not a liquidation-driven sudden crash.
Funding rate is 0, and neither side has paid—market sentiment is in a vacuum. Open interest is relatively heavy compared to the price, meaning every point of decline is consuming margin from leveraged long accounts. In this structure, as long as the downward speed doesn’t accelerate, there won’t be panic selling, but the slow grind will keep wearing down the long accounts until some threshold triggers a staggered liquidation.
My view is that the most likely path is continued slow bleeding lower until open interest starts to fall meaningfully—that’s the signal that longs can’t hold anymore. Going short now is essentially betting on this process of longs being slowly ground down.
The strongest counterargument is that BTC suddenly pumps higher and drags the price up, but right now there’s a lack of a trigger point. The second-order effect is that this kind of drifting-down pattern is most damaging to those using high leverage to bet on a rebound, because the cost is slowly eroded by the funding rate and the spread.
My trade plan: short direction, 3x leverage. Stop loss at 12.20 (recent minor high), take profit at 10.50. Position size: 10%. If BTC breaks above 73000 with volume, I’ll accept the loss on this trade.
Trading tags: #TradFi #链上美股 #MARA
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
Funding rate is 0, and neither side has paid—market sentiment is in a vacuum. Open interest is relatively heavy compared to the price, meaning every point of decline is consuming margin from leveraged long accounts. In this structure, as long as the downward speed doesn’t accelerate, there won’t be panic selling, but the slow grind will keep wearing down the long accounts until some threshold triggers a staggered liquidation.
My view is that the most likely path is continued slow bleeding lower until open interest starts to fall meaningfully—that’s the signal that longs can’t hold anymore. Going short now is essentially betting on this process of longs being slowly ground down.
The strongest counterargument is that BTC suddenly pumps higher and drags the price up, but right now there’s a lack of a trigger point. The second-order effect is that this kind of drifting-down pattern is most damaging to those using high leverage to bet on a rebound, because the cost is slowly eroded by the funding rate and the spread.
My trade plan: short direction, 3x leverage. Stop loss at 12.20 (recent minor high), take profit at 10.50. Position size: 10%. If BTC breaks above 73000 with volume, I’ll accept the loss on this trade.
Trading tags: #TradFi #链上美股 #MARA
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?