$AR Now there are no coins no one watches? The OI accounts for 15.8% of market cap, but the 24-hour move has surged to 10.34%. Positions and prices are already squeezed on one side. I choose to short—but not smash directly at $2.797; I’ll wait for the bounce to enter.
The most dangerous part isn’t the RSI. The daily RSI14 is only 64.5, and the trend hasn’t broken yet. The real issue is that the long/short ratio is 1.44, the large-holder positioning ratio is 2.47, and combined with a positive funding rate of +0.015%, the longs are paying for leverage. The overall market is down 2.60% all day, yet $AR is rising against the trend. That’s independent strength—but during the pullback, there’s also a lack of market support.
On the 4-hour chart, price is still above the EMA5 at $2.745, and the daily EMA5 at $2.716 is also holding the trend. But recently, the last three 4-hour candles’ volatility has reached 4.65%, and the daily near the last three is about 8.63%. The odds of chasing longs aren’t worth it. If the rebound approaches $2.850, then short. If it breaks above the prior high at $3.160, I’ll admit defeat and exit.
Downside first looks at the daily EMA5, then the 4-hour EMA25 at $2.688.
📊 Direction: Short
💰 Entry reference: Short after the rebound near $2.850 faces selling pressure
🛑 Stop loss: $3.170; exit if it breaks the prior high
🎯 Take profit 1: $2.715; if price returns to daily EMA5, bank first
🎯 Take profit 2: $2.688; when it touches the 4-hour EMA25, reassess for follow-through
Position sizing decides your mindset—don’t let a positive funding rate decide for you.
When you’re on the side of the rebound selling pressure and pullback, or do you stand with the independent strength and keep pushing higher? Choose one.
$AR #技术分析 #Uncle Twelve
If you want to follow my live-trading rhythm, go check the copy-trading in the Binance homepage. If it feels right, then follow.
Click my homepage to start copying
https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/copy-trading/lead-details/5051200019981811968
The most dangerous part isn’t the RSI. The daily RSI14 is only 64.5, and the trend hasn’t broken yet. The real issue is that the long/short ratio is 1.44, the large-holder positioning ratio is 2.47, and combined with a positive funding rate of +0.015%, the longs are paying for leverage. The overall market is down 2.60% all day, yet $AR is rising against the trend. That’s independent strength—but during the pullback, there’s also a lack of market support.
On the 4-hour chart, price is still above the EMA5 at $2.745, and the daily EMA5 at $2.716 is also holding the trend. But recently, the last three 4-hour candles’ volatility has reached 4.65%, and the daily near the last three is about 8.63%. The odds of chasing longs aren’t worth it. If the rebound approaches $2.850, then short. If it breaks above the prior high at $3.160, I’ll admit defeat and exit.
Downside first looks at the daily EMA5, then the 4-hour EMA25 at $2.688.
📊 Direction: Short
💰 Entry reference: Short after the rebound near $2.850 faces selling pressure
🛑 Stop loss: $3.170; exit if it breaks the prior high
🎯 Take profit 1: $2.715; if price returns to daily EMA5, bank first
🎯 Take profit 2: $2.688; when it touches the 4-hour EMA25, reassess for follow-through
Position sizing decides your mindset—don’t let a positive funding rate decide for you.
When you’re on the side of the rebound selling pressure and pullback, or do you stand with the independent strength and keep pushing higher? Choose one.
$AR #技术分析 #Uncle Twelve
If you want to follow my live-trading rhythm, go check the copy-trading in the Binance homepage. If it feels right, then follow.
Click my homepage to start copying
https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/copy-trading/lead-details/5051200019981811968
