If the Federal Reserve stands pat at its meeting on the 17th, the gap between its stance and what the market has priced in will be transmitted to the U.S. Treasury market, forcing yields higher through Treasury auctions. At that time, the government may intervene in a manner similar to controlling the yield curve—for example, by continuing to conduct Treasury repurchases—which would be a powerful positive catalyst for international spot gold. It would drive international spot gold to surge significantly before the end of the year and gradually move toward the $5,000 target level.
Conversely, if the Federal Reserve ultimately conforms to expectations and raises rates by 25 basis points, given the constraint of an upper limit on rate hikes, the pullback in international spot gold and international spot silver would be very limited.
$XAU