đ° Memecoin explodes twice a weekâBTC ranging around 77K: why canât risk events keep pushing the price lower?
According to this weekâs round-up by Bitcoin.com: Hunter Bidenâs LAPTOP token crashed 98% right after listing; Liquid began recovery after suffering a 4,000 BTC hacker attack; a cybercrime crew pleaded guilty, admitting to stealing over $245 million in crypto assets; and there are also reports that Iran is using Bitcoin and USDT more and more. With so many risk events piling up within a week, BTC is currently $77,357.95, up just 0.25% in the past 24 hours, while ETH is $2,507.28, down 0.69%.
One-sentence translation: This weekâs story is all about the same thingâcrypto penetration is expanding, but every expansion comes with fresh risk exposure.
A 98% crash in LAPTOP isnât an isolated case; itâs a tail-risk feature typical of Pump.fun-style launch platforms. When memecoins get attached to new narratives like tokenized stocks and celebrity tokens, the betting table gets bigger, but the probability of going to zero doesnât decrease. Liquidâs stolen 4,000 BTC exposes the old problem with custody securityâevery year exchanges and cross-chain protocols still end up âpaying a taxâ to hackers. The $245 million guilty-plea case shows enforcement is tightening, but thatâs accountability after the factâusersâ money is already gone.
Market impact
Short term: The LAPTOP collapse and the hack are sentiment negatives for the overall market, but historically, a single point of failure has limited transmission into BTC price. BTC ranging at $77,357.95 also confirms this. What truly pressures the price is the slow bleed patternâETH down 0.69% and SOL down 0.60%. Memecoin ecosystem gets hurt first, and platform assets like SOL and ETH take the blade.
Mid term: News that Iran is using crypto to evade sanctions adds new ammunition on the regulatory side, and compliance pressure related to sanctions could spill over into the stablecoin and exchange layers.
Reference case: After major theft incidents in 2024â2025, BTC typically digests the shock within 12 hours, but the trust loss in the memecoin sector can last for weeks.
Trading approach
- Coins: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish đ Predict a drop
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
đĄ My view: Mostly bearish. Before BTC breaks down below $76,000, it has been sliding sideways; once ETH breaks below $2,507.28, it opens the door to a new leg of downside. Invalidation: If BTC breaks above $78,500 on rising volume and holds, the bearish narrative falls apart and it turns into a choppy, slightly bullish setup. Iâm testing the waters with a small-position short; if Iâm wrong, go easy on me. I give this call a 70% confidence level.
This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
đ Historical backtest
- After a similar post, âSustained stock-market-style frenzyâyet crypto doesnât have thatâ (2024-08-20) was released, BTCâs 12h return was -0.05%. The bearish thesis was â wrong.
â ď¸ Not investment advice
According to this weekâs round-up by Bitcoin.com: Hunter Bidenâs LAPTOP token crashed 98% right after listing; Liquid began recovery after suffering a 4,000 BTC hacker attack; a cybercrime crew pleaded guilty, admitting to stealing over $245 million in crypto assets; and there are also reports that Iran is using Bitcoin and USDT more and more. With so many risk events piling up within a week, BTC is currently $77,357.95, up just 0.25% in the past 24 hours, while ETH is $2,507.28, down 0.69%.
One-sentence translation: This weekâs story is all about the same thingâcrypto penetration is expanding, but every expansion comes with fresh risk exposure.
A 98% crash in LAPTOP isnât an isolated case; itâs a tail-risk feature typical of Pump.fun-style launch platforms. When memecoins get attached to new narratives like tokenized stocks and celebrity tokens, the betting table gets bigger, but the probability of going to zero doesnât decrease. Liquidâs stolen 4,000 BTC exposes the old problem with custody securityâevery year exchanges and cross-chain protocols still end up âpaying a taxâ to hackers. The $245 million guilty-plea case shows enforcement is tightening, but thatâs accountability after the factâusersâ money is already gone.
Market impact
Short term: The LAPTOP collapse and the hack are sentiment negatives for the overall market, but historically, a single point of failure has limited transmission into BTC price. BTC ranging at $77,357.95 also confirms this. What truly pressures the price is the slow bleed patternâETH down 0.69% and SOL down 0.60%. Memecoin ecosystem gets hurt first, and platform assets like SOL and ETH take the blade.
Mid term: News that Iran is using crypto to evade sanctions adds new ammunition on the regulatory side, and compliance pressure related to sanctions could spill over into the stablecoin and exchange layers.
Reference case: After major theft incidents in 2024â2025, BTC typically digests the shock within 12 hours, but the trust loss in the memecoin sector can last for weeks.
Trading approach
- Coins: BTC / ETH
- Direction: Bearish đ Predict a drop
- Duration: BTC 12 hours / ETH 24 hours
đĄ My view: Mostly bearish. Before BTC breaks down below $76,000, it has been sliding sideways; once ETH breaks below $2,507.28, it opens the door to a new leg of downside. Invalidation: If BTC breaks above $78,500 on rising volume and holds, the bearish narrative falls apart and it turns into a choppy, slightly bullish setup. Iâm testing the waters with a small-position short; if Iâm wrong, go easy on me. I give this call a 70% confidence level.
This article is not sponsored by any project, and the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
đ Historical backtest
- After a similar post, âSustained stock-market-style frenzyâyet crypto doesnât have thatâ (2024-08-20) was released, BTCâs 12h return was -0.05%. The bearish thesis was â wrong.
â ď¸ Not investment advice
