Bitcoin ETF outflows have been continuous, and instead I’m starting to put more attention on things beyond BTC.
Not because I’m bearish on BTC.
Rather, there’s a divergence worth watching that has emerged recently:
BTC ETFs have seen outflows for four straight trading days,
but ETH ETFs, on the latest trading day, actually recorded roughly a $216 million net inflow.
This still can’t be defined as:
“Capital is starting to rotate from BTC into ETH and DeFi.”
But it reminds me of a question:
If the next phase really brings a new Crypto opportunity, will the best odds still be in BTC?
BTC is more like the liquidity entry point for the entire crypto market.
But once capital is truly willing to take risk,
what I care more about is the second step:
BTC → ETH → DeFi
Whether this capital diffusion chain will appear again.
So going forward, I won’t just assume something is cheap because a DeFi token drops 20% or 30%.
I’ll first observe:
whether ETH can keep attracting capital,
whether ETH/BTC can strengthen,
whether DeFi protocol revenues keep growing,
and whether the revenues generated by the protocol ultimately translate back into Token value.
If all of these happen at the same time,
then—and only then—will I think:
DeFi isn’t just “down enough,” but truly has regained capital pricing.
This is also something I’ve become increasingly clear about after researching projects like AAVE and UNI recently:
The next DeFi opportunity shouldn’t only be about finding:
“Which coin is the cheapest after dropping the most?”
It should be about:
“After capital starts to spread, which protocol can actually turn growth into Token value?”
BTC determines whether the market has water.
ETH tells me whether risk appetite is spreading.
And what DeFi ultimately decides is where that water finally flows.
I’m now waiting for that signal.
$BTC $ETH #DeFi #Crypto
Not because I’m bearish on BTC.
Rather, there’s a divergence worth watching that has emerged recently:
BTC ETFs have seen outflows for four straight trading days,
but ETH ETFs, on the latest trading day, actually recorded roughly a $216 million net inflow.
This still can’t be defined as:
“Capital is starting to rotate from BTC into ETH and DeFi.”
But it reminds me of a question:
If the next phase really brings a new Crypto opportunity, will the best odds still be in BTC?
BTC is more like the liquidity entry point for the entire crypto market.
But once capital is truly willing to take risk,
what I care more about is the second step:
BTC → ETH → DeFi
Whether this capital diffusion chain will appear again.
So going forward, I won’t just assume something is cheap because a DeFi token drops 20% or 30%.
I’ll first observe:
whether ETH can keep attracting capital,
whether ETH/BTC can strengthen,
whether DeFi protocol revenues keep growing,
and whether the revenues generated by the protocol ultimately translate back into Token value.
If all of these happen at the same time,
then—and only then—will I think:
DeFi isn’t just “down enough,” but truly has regained capital pricing.
This is also something I’ve become increasingly clear about after researching projects like AAVE and UNI recently:
The next DeFi opportunity shouldn’t only be about finding:
“Which coin is the cheapest after dropping the most?”
It should be about:
“After capital starts to spread, which protocol can actually turn growth into Token value?”
BTC determines whether the market has water.
ETH tells me whether risk appetite is spreading.
And what DeFi ultimately decides is where that water finally flows.
I’m now waiting for that signal.
$BTC $ETH #DeFi #Crypto