The probability of a rate hike next week is quite high, so the big coin should still keep falling.
A drop isn’t necessarily a bad thing. We specifically analyzed in the livestream how rate hikes affect the big coin’s price action. In 2023, the Fed raised rates one after another, and the big coin kept going up. The most crucial factor is liquidity.
This time, the rate hike may trigger a brief panic. The U.S. is supporting AI and its narrative. If, according to my outlook, in the context of balance-sheet runoff, the government releases quasi-principal reserves to maintain liquidity, then that becomes the driving force for an uptrend.
The original plan was: after the CPI data comes out, the big coin would fall to 750–750, and then everyone would think the Fed won’t raise rates, pushing the big coin up to 830–850 before a pullback. However, the actual market didn’t follow my plan. So I adjusted my own plan: wait until after the U.S. raises rates; then the big coin might fall to 740–750. After going through a period of consolidation, once the dollar starts releasing liquidity, it would rise to 830–850 and then pull back. As the midterm elections approach, as long as Trump starts pushing for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and also addresses the Iran issue, it would show that he hasn’t given up. With that, after the big coin pulls back, it will enter a new wave of growth, reaching 900–100.
I believe a bull market is here, so I don’t think there’s still an opportunity to get in at 40,000, 50,000, or 60,000—unless an extreme black swan event happens.
$BTC
A drop isn’t necessarily a bad thing. We specifically analyzed in the livestream how rate hikes affect the big coin’s price action. In 2023, the Fed raised rates one after another, and the big coin kept going up. The most crucial factor is liquidity.
This time, the rate hike may trigger a brief panic. The U.S. is supporting AI and its narrative. If, according to my outlook, in the context of balance-sheet runoff, the government releases quasi-principal reserves to maintain liquidity, then that becomes the driving force for an uptrend.
The original plan was: after the CPI data comes out, the big coin would fall to 750–750, and then everyone would think the Fed won’t raise rates, pushing the big coin up to 830–850 before a pullback. However, the actual market didn’t follow my plan. So I adjusted my own plan: wait until after the U.S. raises rates; then the big coin might fall to 740–750. After going through a period of consolidation, once the dollar starts releasing liquidity, it would rise to 830–850 and then pull back. As the midterm elections approach, as long as Trump starts pushing for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire and also addresses the Iran issue, it would show that he hasn’t given up. With that, after the big coin pulls back, it will enter a new wave of growth, reaching 900–100.
I believe a bull market is here, so I don’t think there’s still an opportunity to get in at 40,000, 50,000, or 60,000—unless an extreme black swan event happens.
$BTC