August CPI results released: the annualized figure of 3.4% meets expectations, but the monthly core CPI at 0.3% is above the forecast of 0.2%—the exact number that triggered the market’s first impulse to sell.
BTC fell from 77,000 to an intraday low of 76,040, then rebounded strongly and is now trading near 79,000. ETH rose 7.48% in a day to 2,611, SOL gained 4.53% to return above 100, and BTC jumped about $3,800 from its low.
$897 million was liquidated—$494 million for longs and $403 million for shorts—both sides were hit, an uncommon two-way liquidation this year.
Market interpretation of this data has formed two disagreements.
Disagreement #1: What does the monthly core 0.3% imply?
The hawks say it’s evidence of inflation stickiness; the probability of a rate hike in September still sits between 62% and 69%, so there shouldn’t be celebrations. The doves say the annualized core fell to 2.4%, the lowest since 2021—this is the trend; a single month’s monthly figure doesn’t change the direction.
Disagreement #2: Why did the BTC rebound happen?
One explanation is that the market had already priced in a “hot” scenario ahead of the CPI release using PPI data—PPI triggered $562 million in liquidations, and BTC dropped to 76,651. Since the CPI result wasn’t worse than the PPI, the prior overselling was corrected; the rebound is technical rather than driven by fresh buying. Another explanation is that the annualized core at 2.4% is a real sign of improving inflation; long-term capital judged that September hikes were over-priced at this level and started entering.
Both explanations make sense, but they point to completely different subsequent paths.
The key is what the CLARITY Act on September 15 and the FOMC on September 16 will deliver. If the FOMC ultimately chooses to pause, the first explanation holds and BTC still has upside room; if there really is a hike, the future trajectory depends on the size of the hike and the accompanying wording.
ETH’s independent strength of 7.48% today is the biggest abnormal signal—while BTC is in turmoil, ETH surged; markets are pricing in GlAmsterdam’s upgrade expectations in advance. This signal is more worth watching than BTC’s price action itself.
Do you think this day’s setup of “CPI mixed + BTC down first then up” suggests BTC is more likely to move above 80,000 next, or will it retest 76,000 again? Share your view.
$BTC
$ETH
BTC fell from 77,000 to an intraday low of 76,040, then rebounded strongly and is now trading near 79,000. ETH rose 7.48% in a day to 2,611, SOL gained 4.53% to return above 100, and BTC jumped about $3,800 from its low.
$897 million was liquidated—$494 million for longs and $403 million for shorts—both sides were hit, an uncommon two-way liquidation this year.
Market interpretation of this data has formed two disagreements.
Disagreement #1: What does the monthly core 0.3% imply?
The hawks say it’s evidence of inflation stickiness; the probability of a rate hike in September still sits between 62% and 69%, so there shouldn’t be celebrations. The doves say the annualized core fell to 2.4%, the lowest since 2021—this is the trend; a single month’s monthly figure doesn’t change the direction.
Disagreement #2: Why did the BTC rebound happen?
One explanation is that the market had already priced in a “hot” scenario ahead of the CPI release using PPI data—PPI triggered $562 million in liquidations, and BTC dropped to 76,651. Since the CPI result wasn’t worse than the PPI, the prior overselling was corrected; the rebound is technical rather than driven by fresh buying. Another explanation is that the annualized core at 2.4% is a real sign of improving inflation; long-term capital judged that September hikes were over-priced at this level and started entering.
Both explanations make sense, but they point to completely different subsequent paths.
The key is what the CLARITY Act on September 15 and the FOMC on September 16 will deliver. If the FOMC ultimately chooses to pause, the first explanation holds and BTC still has upside room; if there really is a hike, the future trajectory depends on the size of the hike and the accompanying wording.
ETH’s independent strength of 7.48% today is the biggest abnormal signal—while BTC is in turmoil, ETH surged; markets are pricing in GlAmsterdam’s upgrade expectations in advance. This signal is more worth watching than BTC’s price action itself.
Do you think this day’s setup of “CPI mixed + BTC down first then up” suggests BTC is more likely to move above 80,000 next, or will it retest 76,000 again? Share your view.
$BTC
$ETH
