#CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息
I urge rate hikes🤫
1️⃣ Oil prices fan inflation; the Houthis are approaching the Strait of Mandeb. WTI surged 8% overnight to above $103, while Brent is nearing $110. August PPI came in hot: energy month-over-month +4.2%, and diesel month-over-month +24.1%.
Tonight at 20:30, the August CPI will be released. The market consensus expects a month-over-month increase of +0.4% (the highest in nearly 7 months), and a year-over-year reading of 3.4%.
2️⃣ Of course, the real suspense is core CPI. Last month, Waller said at Jackson Hole: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward 2% at a clear and sufficiently fast pace, otherwise we still have work to do."
But now, forecasts clearly run counter to his wishes. Add Nonfarm Payrolls of 162k and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and you could say the economy’s resilience provides justification for rate hikes.
3️⃣ Everyone around the world is raising rates, and the Fed is hard to stay out of it. With current rates at 3.50%-3.75%, they’re "not restrictive enough" for this round of the economy—this is something Waller himself said.
If they truly hike rates, then of course I’m bearish.
This is also a good opportunity to buy the dip.
I urge rate hikes🤫
1️⃣ Oil prices fan inflation; the Houthis are approaching the Strait of Mandeb. WTI surged 8% overnight to above $103, while Brent is nearing $110. August PPI came in hot: energy month-over-month +4.2%, and diesel month-over-month +24.1%.
Tonight at 20:30, the August CPI will be released. The market consensus expects a month-over-month increase of +0.4% (the highest in nearly 7 months), and a year-over-year reading of 3.4%.
2️⃣ Of course, the real suspense is core CPI. Last month, Waller said at Jackson Hole: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward 2% at a clear and sufficiently fast pace, otherwise we still have work to do."
But now, forecasts clearly run counter to his wishes. Add Nonfarm Payrolls of 162k and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and you could say the economy’s resilience provides justification for rate hikes.
3️⃣ Everyone around the world is raising rates, and the Fed is hard to stay out of it. With current rates at 3.50%-3.75%, they’re "not restrictive enough" for this round of the economy—this is something Waller himself said.
If they truly hike rates, then of course I’m bearish.
This is also a good opportunity to buy the dip.