According to the latest survey data released by Markets Pulse on Thursday, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has risen above 4.96%, reaching a nearly three-year high. Among 122 respondents, about 30% believe that if the benchmark yield moves into the 5% to 5.25% range, U.S. stocks will face the pressure of a technical correction with a 10% pullback from the recent peak, while another 22% set the critical point at 5.25% to 5.5%.
The intensification of the U.S. Treasuries selloff, along with yield volatility, is largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. This has raised inflation expectations and sparked concerns about a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve. From both a technical standpoint and the macroeconomic cycle, although U.S. Treasury yields approaching the key psychological level near 5% creates short-term valuation re-pricing pressure, it also suggests that the “bad news” is entering an accelerated top-formation phase, as the market is fully digesting extreme inflation expectations.
In traditional financial markets, as U.S. Treasury yields approach a key resistance level, they may suppress the equity risk premium in the short term. However, the upside room for long-end yields is gradually narrowing. A yield peak is often accompanied by capital rotating back into risk assets with inflation-hedging characteristics and strong growth potential.
For the crypto market, $BTC and mainstream crypto assets have demonstrated very strong resilience against declines. As liquidity pressure is fully released in traditional bond markets, safe-haven funds and long-term allocation demand are expected to spill over from overvalued traditional equities into the crypto market. This could drive a structural inflow of capital. Short-term technical consolidation may not change the medium-term trend of an overall improvement in risk appetite.
#美债 #利率 #Macro economy
The intensification of the U.S. Treasuries selloff, along with yield volatility, is largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. This has raised inflation expectations and sparked concerns about a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve. From both a technical standpoint and the macroeconomic cycle, although U.S. Treasury yields approaching the key psychological level near 5% creates short-term valuation re-pricing pressure, it also suggests that the “bad news” is entering an accelerated top-formation phase, as the market is fully digesting extreme inflation expectations.
In traditional financial markets, as U.S. Treasury yields approach a key resistance level, they may suppress the equity risk premium in the short term. However, the upside room for long-end yields is gradually narrowing. A yield peak is often accompanied by capital rotating back into risk assets with inflation-hedging characteristics and strong growth potential.
For the crypto market, $BTC and mainstream crypto assets have demonstrated very strong resilience against declines. As liquidity pressure is fully released in traditional bond markets, safe-haven funds and long-term allocation demand are expected to spill over from overvalued traditional equities into the crypto market. This could drive a structural inflow of capital. Short-term technical consolidation may not change the medium-term trend of an overall improvement in risk appetite.
#美债 #利率 #Macro economy