$BTC , $ETH are experiencing a weak rebound after a decline, and the daily chart adjustment has not yet ended; ETH is comparatively resilient. Tonight, the key focus is the release of CPI: whether BTC can reclaim 77,250 and whether ETH can hold above 2,475.
I. Latest developments
1. PPI rebounds, inflation pressure remains: US August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year; the July month-over-month figure was revised up to 0.1%. Higher energy prices are the main driver of price increases on the goods side, and there is no clear signal of easing inflation yet.
2. ETF flows move out in sync (slightly bearish): On September 10, US BTC spot ETF net outflows were approximately $282.7 million, the third consecutive trading day of outflows; ETH spot ETF net outflows were approximately $29.90 million, turning from the previous day’s inflow to outflow. Institutional capital has not yet formed sustained absorption.
3. Oil prices and interest rates add pressure; tonight’s CPI is critical: Reuters reported this morning that the yield on US 10-year Treasuries is around 4.965%, and the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September is about 71.3%. Continued energy supply risks keep inflation concerns elevated. The US August CPI is scheduled to be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time.
Overall assessment from the news: bearish leaning. ETF outflows, high oil prices, and high yields jointly limit the rebound. If tonight’s CPI comes in below expectations, it may enable a repair; if it comes in above expectations, be alert to the possibility that downside support will be hit again, and the direction still needs price confirmation.
I. Latest developments
1. PPI rebounds, inflation pressure remains: US August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year; the July month-over-month figure was revised up to 0.1%. Higher energy prices are the main driver of price increases on the goods side, and there is no clear signal of easing inflation yet.
2. ETF flows move out in sync (slightly bearish): On September 10, US BTC spot ETF net outflows were approximately $282.7 million, the third consecutive trading day of outflows; ETH spot ETF net outflows were approximately $29.90 million, turning from the previous day’s inflow to outflow. Institutional capital has not yet formed sustained absorption.
3. Oil prices and interest rates add pressure; tonight’s CPI is critical: Reuters reported this morning that the yield on US 10-year Treasuries is around 4.965%, and the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September is about 71.3%. Continued energy supply risks keep inflation concerns elevated. The US August CPI is scheduled to be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time.
Overall assessment from the news: bearish leaning. ETF outflows, high oil prices, and high yields jointly limit the rebound. If tonight’s CPI comes in below expectations, it may enable a repair; if it comes in above expectations, be alert to the possibility that downside support will be hit again, and the direction still needs price confirmation.