Rate hike expectations rising hasn’t suppressed risk markets—refusing to sell off. The reason: it’s a single rate hike, not the start of a cyclical tightening.
The normal logic: rate hikes suppress risk assets like BTC.
In reality: the rate hike is meant to bring rate cuts—an essentially symbolic hike that signals the top. The debt crisis then erupts (BTC’s major bull-wave).
Next week, the Fed’s final hike will be 25 basis points. It will acknowledge that inflation stems from the supply side. By year-end, it will either stay on hold or be forced to turn dovish, while the $40 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt payments become unmanageable.
The market is fully convinced that high interest rates can’t last. A sovereign-debt credit crisis is priced in across the board. High inflation plus negative real rates returns—funds疯狂疯狂 surge into hard assets for risk aversion, and BTC breaks out into an independent bull market.
Rate hikes themselves are a bearish factor for BTC, but forcing central banks to reveal their soft underbelly—leading to a collapse of sovereign credit and a derailment of fiscal debt—are what become BTC’s super bullish drivers.
The normal logic: rate hikes suppress risk assets like BTC.
In reality: the rate hike is meant to bring rate cuts—an essentially symbolic hike that signals the top. The debt crisis then erupts (BTC’s major bull-wave).
Next week, the Fed’s final hike will be 25 basis points. It will acknowledge that inflation stems from the supply side. By year-end, it will either stay on hold or be forced to turn dovish, while the $40 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt payments become unmanageable.
The market is fully convinced that high interest rates can’t last. A sovereign-debt credit crisis is priced in across the board. High inflation plus negative real rates returns—funds疯狂疯狂 surge into hard assets for risk aversion, and BTC breaks out into an independent bull market.
Rate hikes themselves are a bearish factor for BTC, but forcing central banks to reveal their soft underbelly—leading to a collapse of sovereign credit and a derailment of fiscal debt—are what become BTC’s super bullish drivers.