Markets often treat the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision as the most important macro trigger for Bitcoin, but Coin Metrics’ latest research points to a different answer: if you look only at the first 30 minutes after a news release, the U.S. employment data is actually the piece of information most likely to cause BTC to abruptly change direction.
In a comparison published by Coin Metrics on September 8 (Bitcoin’s Shifting Macro Identity), it analyzed BTC volatility around the nonfarm payroll report, the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), and FOMC decisions during the period from January 2025 to September 2026. The results show that within the first 30 minutes after the jobs report is released, the median BTC absolute price change is about 2 times that of a typical non-event period. Core CPI shortly follows at about 1.8 times. By contrast, the FOMC rate decision—what the market pays the most attention to—saw volatility in both observation windows remain roughly at normal baseline levels.
Non-farm payrolls are the “spark,” and CPI determines how far the market move can go
This does not mean that CPI is not important.
Coin Metrics specifically notes that employment reports bring the biggest immediate price shock, but core CPI has a more lasting impact. The reason is that employment figures quickly change the market’s judgment on whether the economy is overheating and whether the Fed still has room to hike rates; meanwhile, inflation data directly affects real interest rates and the path of monetary policy, so price repricing often continues for a longer period.
In other words, if you ask “which data is most likely to send BTC in a direction within half an hour,” the answer right now is non-farm payrolls. But if you ask which data is more likely to make the market reassess the interest-rate path over the coming weeks, the importance of core CPI may not be lower than that of non-farm payrolls.
As for why the FOMC decision didn’t turn out to be as dramatic as expected, one plausible explanation is that interest-rate decisions are often already gradually priced in by prior developments—employment, CPI, officials’ remarks, and interest-rate futures. The real price shock may have already occurred before the Fed officially announced anything.
A single non-farm print, and BTC drops 2.32% in half an hour
The U.S. August employment report released on September 4 is the clearest example.
U.S. non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far above the market’s prior estimate of about 56,000. The strong numbers quickly boosted market expectations for Fed rate hikes. Reuters reported that after the data was released, the market briefly pushed the odds of a September rate hike to around 60%.
Coin Metrics statistics show that within 30 minutes after the data release, BTC fell 2.32%, about 6 times the typical 30-minute reaction to non-farm payrolls.
The derivatives market also deleveraged in parallel: open interest for BTC fell by about 3% within half an hour. Long liquidations were about $119 million, while short liquidations were only about $24 million—roughly a 5:1 ratio. This also shows that macro data is often just a “trigger”; what truly determines whether the downside accelerates quickly is how much leverage the market had accumulated at that time.
The bigger change: BTC is starting to look less like a technology stock and more and more like gold
More than short-term event volatility, what’s worth paying attention to is that the relationship between bitcoin and traditional assets is changing.
Coin Metrics’ latest data shows that the 90-day return correlation coefficient between BTC and gold has risen to +0.56, the highest since 2020. At the same time, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100, as well as with the U.S. dollar, has fallen to near zero.
Chart source: Coin Metrics
This is a stark contrast to the market impression from the past, which treated BTC as a “high-beta tech stock.”
Coin Metrics believes that recent Bitcoin and gold have begun to be driven by similar macro forces, including concerns about purchasing power of money, government debt, fiscal deficits, and the direction of real interest rates. When the market worries about fiat currency depreciation and sovereign debt issues, these two scarce assets are more likely to move in the same direction.
This situation has not happened for the first time. After the large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus following the 2020 pandemic, and during the 2023 U.S. regional bank crisis, BTC and gold both moved closer again due to liquidity and financial-system risks.
But +0.56 doesn’t mean Bitcoin has permanently become “digital gold.” The correlation coefficient is a rolling indicator and can change rapidly with market conditions; Coin Metrics’ past research also shows that Bitcoin can repeatedly switch roles between “tech stock/risk asset” and “scarce currency asset” across different cycles.
Therefore, a more accurate way to say it than “BTC has decoupled from Nasdaq” would be: Bitcoin is currently trading in a macro regime that is more oriented toward gold than toward technology stocks.
The next real stress test: CPI arrives before the Fed
This market structure will quickly face its next test.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the August CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on September 11, while the Fed will hold an FOMC meeting from September 15 to 16.
Coin Metrics’ historical data suggests that the market should not simply wait for the rate decision on September 16.
If the core CPI is higher than expected, the market may first raise expectations for rate hikes and real interest rates, putting pressure on both BTC and gold; conversely, if core inflation cools, the hawkish repricing driven by employment data may be partially reversed.
What needs to be observed, therefore, is not a single FOMC statement, but a complete transmission chain: non-farm payrolls change rate expectations → CPI confirms or negates those expectations → bond yields and the dollar are repriced → the FOMC ultimately confirms the policy path.
According to Coin Metrics’ latest research, Bitcoin is no longer merely waiting for the Fed to “announce the answer.” The biggest inflection in the market often begins before the answer is released.
And with the correlation between BTC and gold rising to 0.56, and the link to Nasdaq nearing zero, this September round of CPI and the FOMC will be an even more critical test: will Bitcoin merely be temporarily stepping away from tech stocks, or will it truly return to the trading logic of “digital gold” again?
Chart source: Coin Metrics
This article is reprinted with permission from: (Blockman)
Original title: (Don’t just watch the Fed! Coin Metrics reveals Bitcoin’s true “inflection-point code”: the biggest impact comes from non-farm payrolls, and core CPI lasts longer)
Original author: Anfei
“Don’t just watch the Fed! Experts reveal Bitcoin’s ‘inflection-point code’: the non-farm payroll shock is the biggest, and core CPI lasts longer.” This article was first published on “Crypto City.”