Markets are pricing in a September hike, but here's the reality check:

Trump just made rate CUTS a condition for his next Fed Chair pick. Now ask yourself—will Chair Warsh really hike rates in his first move after being hand-picked by Trump?

Political pressure matters. The market might be overestimating this one.

Watch the Fed's language closely. If they're softening the tone now, that's your signal. September might be a lot less hawkish than consensus thinks.