$BTC 日评 9月11日
Spot 24h: High 78564, Low 76464, current price around 76700. Opened at 78289, then got smashed down from above 78k all the way; bids came in below 77k on the CPI day.
In terms of structure, supply is still in the 78k–80k area. Bitfinex True Market Mean is about 76350; BTC.D about 56.3%; Fear & Greed around 69. This round’s low was tagged around 76464; for now it’s holding slightly above the cost band.
On events: last night’s PPI has already been released—m/m about +0.4%, y/y about +5.4%, core m/m about +0.2%; initial jobless claims about 206k. CPI will be released tonight at 20:30. Market expectations are roughly Headline m/m around +0.4% and y/y about 3.3%–3.4%, Core about +0.2% / +2.4% (each source varies a little—only expectations are cited; actual figures are not out yet). Next week: FOMC.
Intraday outlook: handle it as a weak consolidation followed by a fade after a rebound. Reclaim and hold above 78000 will invalidate this view; a break below 76400 opens the downside.
My take: bearish in the short term. 78k is currently resistance, not support.
$BTC #比特币 #CPI
Spot 24h: High 78564, Low 76464, current price around 76700. Opened at 78289, then got smashed down from above 78k all the way; bids came in below 77k on the CPI day.
In terms of structure, supply is still in the 78k–80k area. Bitfinex True Market Mean is about 76350; BTC.D about 56.3%; Fear & Greed around 69. This round’s low was tagged around 76464; for now it’s holding slightly above the cost band.
On events: last night’s PPI has already been released—m/m about +0.4%, y/y about +5.4%, core m/m about +0.2%; initial jobless claims about 206k. CPI will be released tonight at 20:30. Market expectations are roughly Headline m/m around +0.4% and y/y about 3.3%–3.4%, Core about +0.2% / +2.4% (each source varies a little—only expectations are cited; actual figures are not out yet). Next week: FOMC.
Intraday outlook: handle it as a weak consolidation followed by a fade after a rebound. Reclaim and hold above 78000 will invalidate this view; a break below 76400 opens the downside.
My take: bearish in the short term. 78k is currently resistance, not support.
$BTC #比特币 #CPI
