Today, an extremely extreme macro combination has actually emerged:
PPI 5.4%
Brent $106.6
10Y 4.92%
Fed hike odds are highest at about 70%
BTC ETF has had two consecutive days of outflows.
Under normal circumstances, this combination should put very clear pressure on BTC.
But right now BTC:
is still hovering around 77K.
So today, the most important piece of information is actually:
The bearishness hasn’t, for the moment, kept pushing the price down.
This mirrors the previous situation of:
“Big ETF inflows but BTC doesn’t rise.”
So now BTC may be forming a new short-term balance zone between 77K and 80K, waiting for CPI to break it.
For the next step, there are only two scenarios to watch:
If CPI is softer:
79.8K—80.2K → 81K → 82.8K.
After an effective breakout above 82.8K:
88.5K → 93K → 98K.
If CPI runs hot:
77K → 75.5K → 72K—74K.
Especially pay attention to one combination:
CPI is hot + 10Y breaks above 5% + Brent continues to hold above $100 + ETF continues to see outflows on the third day.
If all four happen at the same time, 75K is very likely to no longer be just a tail-end risk, but instead becomes the main trading target.
So over the next 24 hours, don’t let the few-hundred-dollar fluctuations around 78K distract you. What truly determines the next leg of the BTC move is whether CPI can prove that tonight’s PPI-driven inflation re-accelerating is merely an energy-related disturbance—or whether a U.S. “second round” of inflation is really back.
Focus on the CPI data at 20:30 on the 11th.
PPI 5.4%
Brent $106.6
10Y 4.92%
Fed hike odds are highest at about 70%
BTC ETF has had two consecutive days of outflows.
Under normal circumstances, this combination should put very clear pressure on BTC.
But right now BTC:
is still hovering around 77K.
So today, the most important piece of information is actually:
The bearishness hasn’t, for the moment, kept pushing the price down.
This mirrors the previous situation of:
“Big ETF inflows but BTC doesn’t rise.”
So now BTC may be forming a new short-term balance zone between 77K and 80K, waiting for CPI to break it.
For the next step, there are only two scenarios to watch:
If CPI is softer:
79.8K—80.2K → 81K → 82.8K.
After an effective breakout above 82.8K:
88.5K → 93K → 98K.
If CPI runs hot:
77K → 75.5K → 72K—74K.
Especially pay attention to one combination:
CPI is hot + 10Y breaks above 5% + Brent continues to hold above $100 + ETF continues to see outflows on the third day.
If all four happen at the same time, 75K is very likely to no longer be just a tail-end risk, but instead becomes the main trading target.
So over the next 24 hours, don’t let the few-hundred-dollar fluctuations around 78K distract you. What truly determines the next leg of the BTC move is whether CPI can prove that tonight’s PPI-driven inflation re-accelerating is merely an energy-related disturbance—or whether a U.S. “second round” of inflation is really back.
Focus on the CPI data at 20:30 on the 11th.