After the U.S. August PPI release, the CME Fed rate-hike probability for <cme> jumped to 69.7%—and it shot up by nearly 10 percentage points in an instant!
In the crypto market, the past 4 hours also saw $235 million liquidated: long positions accounted for $212 million, or 90%.
And based on historical data since 2015, when the market-priced rate-hike probability exceeds 69%, the Federal Reserve has raised rates at every meeting in each instance.
Now the only potential positive: this Tuesday, Bitcoin formed a golden cross—its 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. But technical positives can’t erase the bleakness of the broader environment!
I know that many people are going long right now— or rather, a lot of FOMO chasing higher prices—because I said in the tweet I posted this afternoon: “Countdown to a crash—90% probability of a bearish outcome. Either don’t move, or short!”
There are more people who come to rant or argue against it than those who liked it. From past experience, you can tell: when it’s right, investing is against human nature—so the profit/loss split is 2:8.
The CPI data tomorrow evening is likely bearish as well. But today the longs got liquidated—tomorrow it might drop after first luring in another wave of longs, then liquidating the shorts too, and then a bigger selloff!
Right now, the big picture favors the bears—the “sweet spot” for the air force. Repeat it once more: short it high! Short it high! Short it high!
In the crypto market, the past 4 hours also saw $235 million liquidated: long positions accounted for $212 million, or 90%.
And based on historical data since 2015, when the market-priced rate-hike probability exceeds 69%, the Federal Reserve has raised rates at every meeting in each instance.
Now the only potential positive: this Tuesday, Bitcoin formed a golden cross—its 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average. But technical positives can’t erase the bleakness of the broader environment!
I know that many people are going long right now— or rather, a lot of FOMO chasing higher prices—because I said in the tweet I posted this afternoon: “Countdown to a crash—90% probability of a bearish outcome. Either don’t move, or short!”
There are more people who come to rant or argue against it than those who liked it. From past experience, you can tell: when it’s right, investing is against human nature—so the profit/loss split is 2:8.
The CPI data tomorrow evening is likely bearish as well. But today the longs got liquidated—tomorrow it might drop after first luring in another wave of longs, then liquidating the shorts too, and then a bigger selloff!
Right now, the big picture favors the bears—the “sweet spot” for the air force. Repeat it once more: short it high! Short it high! Short it high!
