The U.S. Department of the Treasury plans to auction $22 billion in 30-year Treasuries due in 2056 this Thursday. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has promised to give each person $5,000 if the Republican Party wins the midterm elections, further intensifying market concerns about U.S. fiscal discipline. Currently, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasuries has remained near the highest levels since the 2008 global financial crisis. Because the government previously repurchased a maximum of only $6 billion in long-dated Treasuries in a single transaction, supply pressure remains significant.
From a technical and macro-expectations perspective, long-end U.S. Treasury yields have been trading in a narrow range ahead of the auction, suggesting that short-selling momentum is entering a period of exhaustion. Although Trump’s “money to people” pledge is less likely to be feasible, it effectively reinforces market expectations of future liquidity expansion. As key CPI data is released later this week, once slowing inflation is confirmed, the high yields currently sitting near historical resistance levels will likely face strong technical pullback demand.
For the broader financial markets, the stabilization of long-end Treasury yields in an extreme range offers a chance to build a bottom in traditional risk assets. With upside momentum in the U.S. Dollar Index easing, if Thursday’s $22 billion auction demand proves strong, a downward adjustment in Treasury yields will directly relieve pressure on global asset valuations and could support a rebound in gold and other high-volatility assets.
In the crypto market, $BTC is in a buildup structure just below a key resistance level. The combination of expectations for fiscal expansion and a peak-and-trough reversal in Treasury yields is typically a core catalyst for a recovery in risk appetite. As capital gradually shifts from waiting to chasing beta returns, derivative funding rates and spot buying are likely to move in tandem, and crypto assets may be set for a new round of liquidity-driven upside breakout momentum.🚀
#美债 #特朗普 #liquidity
From a technical and macro-expectations perspective, long-end U.S. Treasury yields have been trading in a narrow range ahead of the auction, suggesting that short-selling momentum is entering a period of exhaustion. Although Trump’s “money to people” pledge is less likely to be feasible, it effectively reinforces market expectations of future liquidity expansion. As key CPI data is released later this week, once slowing inflation is confirmed, the high yields currently sitting near historical resistance levels will likely face strong technical pullback demand.
For the broader financial markets, the stabilization of long-end Treasury yields in an extreme range offers a chance to build a bottom in traditional risk assets. With upside momentum in the U.S. Dollar Index easing, if Thursday’s $22 billion auction demand proves strong, a downward adjustment in Treasury yields will directly relieve pressure on global asset valuations and could support a rebound in gold and other high-volatility assets.
In the crypto market, $BTC is in a buildup structure just below a key resistance level. The combination of expectations for fiscal expansion and a peak-and-trough reversal in Treasury yields is typically a core catalyst for a recovery in risk appetite. As capital gradually shifts from waiting to chasing beta returns, derivative funding rates and spot buying are likely to move in tandem, and crypto assets may be set for a new round of liquidity-driven upside breakout momentum.🚀
#美债 #特朗普 #liquidity