$SPCX 24 hours of decline of 3.69%, with the funding rate remaining at zero.
This move in itself is a signal: in the absence of sudden news-driven catalysts, the price moves first in a weaker direction, indicating that market sentiment is cautious, or that it is pricing in potential upcoming global news events as a form of prevention. A zero funding rate means that the long and short forces are temporarily balanced, with neither side paying high carry costs. This usually appears during a trend formation period or a phase when the short-term direction is unclear.
My core view is that this low-volume selloff more likely reflects holders’ watch-and-wait behavior rather than panic selling. Open interest is over 2.13 million contracts—it's not small. Yet the price is falling while the funding rate stays unchanged, suggesting that any new short-side pressure is not aggressive. It looks more like long-term longs are gradually exiting.
The strongest counterargument is: if bearish news truly emerges later, the current level lacks a clear backstop, and the drop could accelerate. A zero funding rate also means there is no urgent need for shorts to take profit during the decline.
The second-order effect is that if the price continues to drift lower, it will test the support around 147.48. Once it breaks, it is likely to trigger algorithmic sell orders and passive stop-losses, creating a self-reinforcing downward loop.
My action is to continue observing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?
This move in itself is a signal: in the absence of sudden news-driven catalysts, the price moves first in a weaker direction, indicating that market sentiment is cautious, or that it is pricing in potential upcoming global news events as a form of prevention. A zero funding rate means that the long and short forces are temporarily balanced, with neither side paying high carry costs. This usually appears during a trend formation period or a phase when the short-term direction is unclear.
My core view is that this low-volume selloff more likely reflects holders’ watch-and-wait behavior rather than panic selling. Open interest is over 2.13 million contracts—it's not small. Yet the price is falling while the funding rate stays unchanged, suggesting that any new short-side pressure is not aggressive. It looks more like long-term longs are gradually exiting.
The strongest counterargument is: if bearish news truly emerges later, the current level lacks a clear backstop, and the drop could accelerate. A zero funding rate also means there is no urgent need for shorts to take profit during the decline.
The second-order effect is that if the price continues to drift lower, it will test the support around 147.48. Once it breaks, it is likely to trigger algorithmic sell orders and passive stop-losses, creating a self-reinforcing downward loop.
My action is to continue observing.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #SPCX
Where do you think this set of judgments is most likely to be wrong?