CPI coming up soon—there may be volatility, but I think:
1. As long as we don’t enter a sustained rate-hike cycle, one or two or three single rate hikes are noise that the market can absorb, and they won’t change the long-term trend of assets. The real key isn’t the CPI data itself, but the Fed’s policy response mechanism to the inflation data.
2. The market is pricing in 1.5 rate hikes for the full year of 2026. Oil prices have limited impact on core CPI. This year, I believe they will stay on hold—no increase, no decrease.
3. Current market sentiment and participation levels are low, so there’s no need to hedge positions against the upcoming CPI release. Even if the data is negative, the downside is limited; once the negative news is priced in, it becomes an opportunity.
$BTC
1. As long as we don’t enter a sustained rate-hike cycle, one or two or three single rate hikes are noise that the market can absorb, and they won’t change the long-term trend of assets. The real key isn’t the CPI data itself, but the Fed’s policy response mechanism to the inflation data.
2. The market is pricing in 1.5 rate hikes for the full year of 2026. Oil prices have limited impact on core CPI. This year, I believe they will stay on hold—no increase, no decrease.
3. Current market sentiment and participation levels are low, so there’s no need to hedge positions against the upcoming CPI release. Even if the data is negative, the downside is limited; once the negative news is priced in, it becomes an opportunity.
$BTC