Contract Order Book Daily Report｜9/10 Midday: Greed in sentiment, but positions are shrinking
$BTC mark price 78,349.88 USD, down 0.25% over 24 hours; the funding rate of 0.0067% is still positive—longs are still placing buy orders to hold positions.
$ETH is down 0.44%, and its funding rate is also positive at 0.0049%.
$BNB has the largest drop, down 3.21% in 24 hours, but its funding rate is 0—leveraged positions aren’t panicking along with spot.
SOL is down 1.08%; the funding rate has turned negative to -0.009%, meaning shorts are actually paying longs instead.
BTC open interest is 8.259 billion USD, down 2.3% over 24 hours—this is a de-leveraging signal. When price falls, someone chooses to reduce exposure and exit rather than hold on.
Longs’ share is 58%, and the aggressive buy ratio is 0.85, indicating that among those staying, the buyers are still the主动 side.
The Fear & Greed Index is 69, in the greed zone. Price is falling, yet sentiment hasn’t turned pessimistic—this divergence is worth watching.
If greed can’t hold, reducing positions could shift from today’s “deleveraging” to the next “cutting losses.”
Smaller-cap coins show even clearer divergence.
IOST and VTHO funding rates have both dropped to around -1.9%. Shorts are crowded into these coins; once a rebound starts, they may get squeezed and blown up in the opposite direction.
CXMT funding rate is -0.515%, slightly less severe.
Conversely, coins like TEAM and URNM, where longs are crowded, have only just turned the funding rate positive, and the move is within 0.4%—no sign of overheating yet.
On the news front, these past few days have been paving the way for Bitcoin.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly urged the Senate to pass the Clarity Act for crypto regulation as soon as possible. Block, the company under Dorsey, is also applying for a banking license—aiming to make Bitcoin business “mainstream” and legitimate.
However, looking at the derivatives order book, the leveraged side hasn’t added risk because of this kind of news. Funding rate and open interest are both being kept in check. The market looks more like it’s waiting for the bill to actually land, rather than using leverage to set up positions in advance.
Next, watch two things: First, whether BTC open interest will keep falling. If the Fear & Greed Index stays high but open interest begins to rise, that would indicate leverage is re-entering. Second, once crowded short coins like IOST and VTHO start to rebound, whether it triggers a chain of liquidations.
Live disclosure: This account currently holds FOGO long positions; the relevant views are consistent with the actual holdings.
Assisted by Claude Fable 5; the content is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC mark price 78,349.88 USD, down 0.25% over 24 hours; the funding rate of 0.0067% is still positive—longs are still placing buy orders to hold positions.
$ETH is down 0.44%, and its funding rate is also positive at 0.0049%.
$BNB has the largest drop, down 3.21% in 24 hours, but its funding rate is 0—leveraged positions aren’t panicking along with spot.
SOL is down 1.08%; the funding rate has turned negative to -0.009%, meaning shorts are actually paying longs instead.
BTC open interest is 8.259 billion USD, down 2.3% over 24 hours—this is a de-leveraging signal. When price falls, someone chooses to reduce exposure and exit rather than hold on.
Longs’ share is 58%, and the aggressive buy ratio is 0.85, indicating that among those staying, the buyers are still the主动 side.
The Fear & Greed Index is 69, in the greed zone. Price is falling, yet sentiment hasn’t turned pessimistic—this divergence is worth watching.
If greed can’t hold, reducing positions could shift from today’s “deleveraging” to the next “cutting losses.”
Smaller-cap coins show even clearer divergence.
IOST and VTHO funding rates have both dropped to around -1.9%. Shorts are crowded into these coins; once a rebound starts, they may get squeezed and blown up in the opposite direction.
CXMT funding rate is -0.515%, slightly less severe.
Conversely, coins like TEAM and URNM, where longs are crowded, have only just turned the funding rate positive, and the move is within 0.4%—no sign of overheating yet.
On the news front, these past few days have been paving the way for Bitcoin.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly urged the Senate to pass the Clarity Act for crypto regulation as soon as possible. Block, the company under Dorsey, is also applying for a banking license—aiming to make Bitcoin business “mainstream” and legitimate.
However, looking at the derivatives order book, the leveraged side hasn’t added risk because of this kind of news. Funding rate and open interest are both being kept in check. The market looks more like it’s waiting for the bill to actually land, rather than using leverage to set up positions in advance.
Next, watch two things: First, whether BTC open interest will keep falling. If the Fear & Greed Index stays high but open interest begins to rise, that would indicate leverage is re-entering. Second, once crowded short coins like IOST and VTHO start to rebound, whether it triggers a chain of liquidations.
Live disclosure: This account currently holds FOGO long positions; the relevant views are consistent with the actual holdings.
Assisted by Claude Fable 5; the content is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
