$BNC 24 hours down 12%, but the funding rate is still holding in positive territory at 0.0008. The price is falling, yet longs are still paying shorts — a classic structure of trapped longs adding to positions.
The sentiment premium on the Trump trade is being repriced by the market. The policy tailwind expectations that the market had previously priced in now have to face the gap in actual policy rollout pace, and capital is starting to retreat. But the positive funding rate shows there are still long positions stubbornly holding on, and they may even be averaging down against the trend to dilute their cost basis, which instead is accumulating new liquidation risk.
Open interest is 2.77 million contracts, worth about $132 million at the current price. These long positions are under pressure amid the continued gradual decline. The next step is to watch two things: first, whether there is any new policy catalyst that can trigger a rebound in price; second, whether these stubborn long positions will collectively stop out at some price level and trigger a liquidity cascade. If Trump suddenly makes strong remarks supporting on-chain tokenization of U.S. stocks, sentiment could quickly reverse — that is the strongest argument for the opposite view.
My view is bearish. If longs stubbornly hold in a negative-funding environment, once support breaks it could create a chain of liquidations. If price stabilizes above $5 and the funding rate turns negative, I will revise my view. For now, I’m not chasing longs; if it breaks below $4.5, I’ll consider a short.
Trade tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BNC
Where do you think this whole judgment is most likely wrong?
The sentiment premium on the Trump trade is being repriced by the market. The policy tailwind expectations that the market had previously priced in now have to face the gap in actual policy rollout pace, and capital is starting to retreat. But the positive funding rate shows there are still long positions stubbornly holding on, and they may even be averaging down against the trend to dilute their cost basis, which instead is accumulating new liquidation risk.
Open interest is 2.77 million contracts, worth about $132 million at the current price. These long positions are under pressure amid the continued gradual decline. The next step is to watch two things: first, whether there is any new policy catalyst that can trigger a rebound in price; second, whether these stubborn long positions will collectively stop out at some price level and trigger a liquidity cascade. If Trump suddenly makes strong remarks supporting on-chain tokenization of U.S. stocks, sentiment could quickly reverse — that is the strongest argument for the opposite view.
My view is bearish. If longs stubbornly hold in a negative-funding environment, once support breaks it could create a chain of liquidations. If price stabilizes above $5 and the funding rate turns negative, I will revise my view. For now, I’m not chasing longs; if it breaks below $4.5, I’ll consider a short.
Trade tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BNC
Where do you think this whole judgment is most likely wrong?