Oil prices broke 100, the U.S. stock market is down—but then $BTC surged to 79,000 instead. This is kind of interesting.
In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran are striking each other’s oil tankers. The volume of merchant shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is down to only about 5% of what it was before the war. Brent crude oil jumped above $100 overnight, and the U.S. stock market basically fell at the open. Under the usual playbook, risk assets should get hit together—but this time it’s different. $BTC is clearly moving in line with gold. As CoinDesk put it: “Crypto is tracking gold, not stocks.”
Let’s look at the data too: In August, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $18 billion, the second-largest month in history. Risk-off money is desperately looking for an exit, while Bitcoin is being priced as a “digital gold,” and $ETH $SOL has also stabilized.
Here are my thoughts: Near-term volatility is definitely not going away—don’t use leverage to bet on direction. But if oil prices bring inflation back and expectations for rate hikes heat up (traders are already betting on hikes by the European and UK central banks), fiat purchasing power will keep getting diluted. In that case, the long-term logic for hard assets becomes stronger.
What I’m most worried about is repeated rumors of a ceasefire—getting squeezed on both long and short sides. Hold your spot, keep your hands steady, and don’t act as cannon fodder.
#比特币 #加密货币 #数字黄金 #Web3 #blockchain
NFA DYOR
In the Middle East, the U.S. and Iran are striking each other’s oil tankers. The volume of merchant shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is down to only about 5% of what it was before the war. Brent crude oil jumped above $100 overnight, and the U.S. stock market basically fell at the open. Under the usual playbook, risk assets should get hit together—but this time it’s different. $BTC is clearly moving in line with gold. As CoinDesk put it: “Crypto is tracking gold, not stocks.”
Let’s look at the data too: In August, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of $18 billion, the second-largest month in history. Risk-off money is desperately looking for an exit, while Bitcoin is being priced as a “digital gold,” and $ETH $SOL has also stabilized.
Here are my thoughts: Near-term volatility is definitely not going away—don’t use leverage to bet on direction. But if oil prices bring inflation back and expectations for rate hikes heat up (traders are already betting on hikes by the European and UK central banks), fiat purchasing power will keep getting diluted. In that case, the long-term logic for hard assets becomes stronger.
What I’m most worried about is repeated rumors of a ceasefire—getting squeezed on both long and short sides. Hold your spot, keep your hands steady, and don’t act as cannon fodder.
#比特币 #加密货币 #数字黄金 #Web3 #blockchain
NFA DYOR