There was no market trend over the weekend. I looked at the Mosaic and saw that it was also a mild and small fluctuation. However, IV continued to fall further, so those who held the gamma sideways should make a lot of money.
Take the profit and loss analysis of the signalplus liverisk as an example. In the past three days, most of the profits came from vega rather than delta. (This account is a long-oriented account)
Since most of our LONG CALLs have entered deep in-the-money, when IV plummeted, the reaction from the smile delta level was that the negative delta generated by the sold calls decreased rapidly, and because the long calls did not change in the money, a large amount of positive delta suddenly appeared and needed to be hedged... I'm busy again in the morning. Fortunately, the daily theta of several hundred dollars is still generous. It's worth working overtime during the holidays...
In addition, since the width of long-term options is relatively large, it is likely that market makers will not place many orders during holidays. You can consider manually placing MIDs and slowly wait for the market to be executed.
From the above picture, you can see the huge difference between delta and smiledelta in large market fluctuations. There is also a video on my YouTube channel that introduces it in detail. If you are interested, you can take a look.
I saw a very interesting article today, which talked about why there are so many peasant uprisings in our area.
This has a lot to do with the fact that we entered the great unification too early in the Qin Dynasty. Because the localities did not have enough methods to control the local population, such as military service and autonomous policies. As a result, the population expanded rapidly during good times (much like a gambler adding a lever), but once it entered a period of famine or intensified social contradictions, it collapsed completely. In addition, due to the high dispatch costs caused by the centralized system, it was impossible to effectively balance the contradictions between regions. It is like Yunnan can now generate electricity and transport it to Guangdong, but in the past, inter-provincial grain borrowing could cause disputes and starvation to the victims.
To give a simple example, in the dark Middle Ages, the lords would deliberately and effectively control the population of their jurisdictions to prevent food output from failing to cover the consumption of their territories. But our ancient provincial officials did not have the power to adjust the ecological balance. Of course, from today's perspective, the former is the true pioneer of "family planning". . . During the same period of the Ming Dynasty, the population of the Warring States Period in Japan, which had been fighting for a hundred years, was also growing slowly. The lords are equivalent to shareholders, and they are more concerned about the long-term and stable development of the company, while the county magistrates are more professional managers, and it is easy for them to pat their butts and leave with 100,000 silver coins.
Here I would also like to mention some of my views on learning. I believe that learning is a very scientific and methodical self-motivational discipline. The reason why many people are too inefficient in learning is that they have not found a suitable connection point between positive feedback and learning costs. Let me give you an example I talked about in a live course before:
In his piano learning plan, Liu Qian only did one thing to ensure that he could show off his skills in front of the piano, which was to memorize the most familiar section of "Für Alice".
No music theory or fingering required, just copy the movements of the hand in the video. It can be completed in about a week.
Once the purpose is clear, you can create an optimal solution around it, work hard for it, and quickly gain benefits. This is one of the biggest secrets of our learning.
The atmosphere has been set here. I will post the registration poster for the offline get out of class on March 2 again. There will be similar sharing of quick learning experience at that time. We have also specially invited Mr. Sober, who is very experienced in the macro market, to tell you some secrets on how to surpass ordinary retail investors in an investment environment that is closer to your usual investment.
Considering the limited space, I will also list the course outline here.
For your reference when registering
Our core is not to use any complicated formulas, so as to facilitate non-professional investors to communicate and learn, rebuild their own investment system and optimize investment concepts.
1. Re-deconstruct the underlying risks of all investment behaviors
2. Retail investors have an absolute advantage over institutions + counterparty thinking
3 Guest Speakers: Experience and Trap Avoidance Guide for Mainstream Asset Allocation
Roundtable: Arbitrage Exchange + On-site Question and Interaction
4 Reinterpreting Greek letters from the perspective of retail investors
5 Advanced Application Scenarios of Option Strategies
6 Tail risks and opportunities for retail investors in DeFi
7 How to become a trader safely and quickly
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