September 11 (Friday) 20:30: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August CPI.
September 17 (Thursday) 2:00 a.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its September policy decision, along with its economic forecasts and dot plot.
There are five days between these two events, but in essence they are two halves of the same thing: the first half is a data judgment, and the second half is a policy verdict. And linking them is a number that looks painfully dull—the month-over-month growth rate of core CPI for August.
The market’s current pricing is roughly split between “rate hikes” and “no change.” But what’s really interesting is that the outcome may hinge solely on the 0.1 percentage-point gap between 0.2% and 0.3%.
The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.50%–3.75%. Since the start of 2026, the Fed has left rates unchanged in five consecutive meetings—January, March, April, June, and July—none of them changed anything. The last rate cut dates back to December 2025.
But “no change” doesn’t mean “no disagreement.”
At the July meeting, the FOMC voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged. Three regional Fed presidents voted in favor of hiking. In the Fed’s context, three dissenting votes are already a very strong signal—it suggests there is a full-fledged force within the committee that believes current policy rates are not tight enough.
$BTC #cpi
September 17 (Thursday) 2:00 a.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its September policy decision, along with its economic forecasts and dot plot.
There are five days between these two events, but in essence they are two halves of the same thing: the first half is a data judgment, and the second half is a policy verdict. And linking them is a number that looks painfully dull—the month-over-month growth rate of core CPI for August.
The market’s current pricing is roughly split between “rate hikes” and “no change.” But what’s really interesting is that the outcome may hinge solely on the 0.1 percentage-point gap between 0.2% and 0.3%.
The current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.50%–3.75%. Since the start of 2026, the Fed has left rates unchanged in five consecutive meetings—January, March, April, June, and July—none of them changed anything. The last rate cut dates back to December 2025.
But “no change” doesn’t mean “no disagreement.”
At the July meeting, the FOMC voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged. Three regional Fed presidents voted in favor of hiking. In the Fed’s context, three dissenting votes are already a very strong signal—it suggests there is a full-fledged force within the committee that believes current policy rates are not tight enough.
$BTC #cpi
