U.S. debt just crossed 100% of GDP—first time since WW2.
Last time we hit this level, we were funding a global war. This time? Peacetime spending, entitlements, and interest payments eating up the budget.
The difference: back then we grew our way out. Manufacturing boom, young population, global dominance.
Now? Aging demographics, slower growth, and rates that make servicing this debt expensive. Every 1% move in rates adds hundreds of billions to the interest bill.
Markets haven't panicked yet because the dollar's still king and Treasury demand holds. But this trajectory doesn't fix itself.
Watch the 10-year yield and deficit projections. When bond vigilantes show up, they don't knock politely.
Last time we hit this level, we were funding a global war. This time? Peacetime spending, entitlements, and interest payments eating up the budget.
The difference: back then we grew our way out. Manufacturing boom, young population, global dominance.
Now? Aging demographics, slower growth, and rates that make servicing this debt expensive. Every 1% move in rates adds hundreds of billions to the interest bill.
Markets haven't panicked yet because the dollar's still king and Treasury demand holds. But this trajectory doesn't fix itself.
Watch the 10-year yield and deficit projections. When bond vigilantes show up, they don't knock politely.
