COHR has risen 8.266% over the past 24 hours, with the price reaching 313.16. But the perpetual contract funding rate is 0. This combination is rare: the price surged 8% in a single day, yet longs don’t have to pay the shorts a single cent in funding.
This suggests that this upswing may not be driven by leveraged longs aggressively pushing higher; it could be spot buying that lifts the price. With no funding accumulating, it means longs aren’t carrying the ongoing burden of paying costs. That also implies the “fuel” consumption of the rally is relatively low. Meanwhile, open interest is 25290.06, and there hasn’t been a massive spike, further supporting the idea that this move isn’t built purely by piling up contract positioning.
If spot is truly in control, then the shorts in the futures market haven’t been fiercely squeezed. A real short squeeze requires the price to rise, funding to be high, and OI to surge—all happening at the same time. Right now, only the price is rising; the other two conditions are missing.
On the other hand, without short liquidations as fuel, whether spot can sustain the move is questionable. Once spot buying momentum runs out, and when the price pulls back, downward movement may become smoother—because there’s no “plate” created by shorts covering to prop up the market.
My view is that the foundation of this rally isn’t that solid. It appears to be driven by spot sentiment, lacking resonance from the derivatives market. I won’t chase longs at this level; I’ll wait.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #COHR
Where do you think this assessment is most likely to be wrong?
This suggests that this upswing may not be driven by leveraged longs aggressively pushing higher; it could be spot buying that lifts the price. With no funding accumulating, it means longs aren’t carrying the ongoing burden of paying costs. That also implies the “fuel” consumption of the rally is relatively low. Meanwhile, open interest is 25290.06, and there hasn’t been a massive spike, further supporting the idea that this move isn’t built purely by piling up contract positioning.
If spot is truly in control, then the shorts in the futures market haven’t been fiercely squeezed. A real short squeeze requires the price to rise, funding to be high, and OI to surge—all happening at the same time. Right now, only the price is rising; the other two conditions are missing.
On the other hand, without short liquidations as fuel, whether spot can sustain the move is questionable. Once spot buying momentum runs out, and when the price pulls back, downward movement may become smoother—because there’s no “plate” created by shorts covering to prop up the market.
My view is that the foundation of this rally isn’t that solid. It appears to be driven by spot sentiment, lacking resonance from the derivatives market. I won’t chase longs at this level; I’ll wait.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #COHR
Where do you think this assessment is most likely to be wrong?