$CBRS has fallen 4.43% over the past 24 hours; the price is 203.15, yet the funding rate has dropped to zero. Within the framework of the Trump trade, this combination says a lot. The market is highly sensitive to any political shifts; a zero funding rate means both longs and shorts are waiting—no one is willing to pay to maintain positions, and transaction costs have effectively leveled out. The fact that the price is down while funding has not turned negative suggests that the shorts have not formed a crowded, paid positioning; the selloff is driven more by spot/screen trading pressure.
My view is that the shorts have the temporary edge, but it’s not a stable advantage. Trump’s policy direction is the biggest variable—one tweet can change near-term pricing. A funding rate of zero is a typical critical state: both sides are waiting for a signal. From the perspective of the Trump trade, this is a direct reflection of political uncertainty suppressing risk appetite, and on-chain U.S. stock futures contracts have become the most sensitive reflector.
The counterargument is: if Trump suddenly releases a clear signal that is pro-crypto and/or supportive of the economy, short-covering would happen very quickly, because funding is costless and positions have no friction. The second-order effect is that long stop-loss orders may have accumulated in the 195–200 range; once that level is broken, downside could accelerate. But likewise, any positive news could trigger short liquidations and lead to a rapid rebound.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CBRS
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
My view is that the shorts have the temporary edge, but it’s not a stable advantage. Trump’s policy direction is the biggest variable—one tweet can change near-term pricing. A funding rate of zero is a typical critical state: both sides are waiting for a signal. From the perspective of the Trump trade, this is a direct reflection of political uncertainty suppressing risk appetite, and on-chain U.S. stock futures contracts have become the most sensitive reflector.
The counterargument is: if Trump suddenly releases a clear signal that is pro-crypto and/or supportive of the economy, short-covering would happen very quickly, because funding is costless and positions have no friction. The second-order effect is that long stop-loss orders may have accumulated in the 195–200 range; once that level is broken, downside could accelerate. But likewise, any positive news could trigger short liquidations and lead to a rapid rebound.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #CBRS
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?