Japan wage growth strengthens case for further BoJ rate hikes

🇯🇵 Preliminary July data released by Japan’s MHLW on September 8 showed nominal wages rising 4.7% YoY, the fastest pace since 1997 and well above forecasts of around 3.8–3.9%.

💴 More importantly, regular pay increased 4.1%, the strongest growth since 1992, suggesting income gains are not being driven solely by summer bonuses. Real wages also rose 2.4%, the biggest increase since 2021 and the seventh consecutive month of growth.

📈 The figures strengthen the view that wage gains are becoming more embedded in regular incomes, supporting the case for further BoJ policy tightening in upcoming meetings.

⚖️ However, private consumption was flat in Q2, indicating that stronger incomes have yet to fully translate into domestic demand. The yen remains supported, while short-term JGB yields could face further upward pressure.

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