$BTC
I have always felt that 78k is the current support. Looking back at the market in the past few days, you can see that 79k has been supported all along. Institutions are not selling, and retail is buying, which has kept the market fluctuating around 79–80k.

From the drop on the 5th to the consolidation over the weekend, it has all highlighted the market’s strength. From the 4-hour chart, 83k is the current important resistance level. If the market can hold above it, 83k is very likely to open up room toward 88k → 95k → 100k.

$BTC

If it repeatedly fails to break through around 80k, a deeper pullback is likely to occur.
If it falls below 77k, the structure of this rebound will clearly weaken, and 72k–75k is the more important medium-term defense zone in my view.

On September 3, BTC ETF saw net inflows of about $730.8M in a single day, and on September 4 there was still about $174.6M. Institutional buying has not disappeared.

Most of the shorts are from people who missed this rally and are shorting because of that. In the end, the goal is still to buy into longs and spot. A more comfortable entry is to wait for a pullback to 77–79k for confirmation, or wait for BTC to truly break above 83k and then retest without losing it. At the current level, going long with high leverage does not offer a good risk-reward ratio.

Bull market phase two begins —
Scenario A: BTC holds 75–77k
→ Breaks above $83k
→ $86k
→ $90k
→ $95–100k
Scenario B: Continues with big swings
BTC 75k–83k keeps whipsawing
That is actually not bad either, as it will fully absorb the trapped positions in the market.
Scenario C: Rebound ends — 20%
BTC:
Falls below 75k, then 70k → $67k.
If ETF outflows become massive at the same time, this scenario is difficult to realize unless there is a rate hike.